SAPPORO1′S FIRST 2013-2014 WINTER OUTLOOK. (Region 1: Northeast/ New England)

Posted By: sapporo1  Posted On: Oct 17th, 2013  Filed Under: Weather

For now, this will not include any graphics, since I am not sure how to get any maps saved on my Android.
However, this forecast will be broken down region by region, and will be detailed, so here goes…

Northeast/New England:
Temperatures: this region will be under general influence of both a negative PNA for periods of time, which causes a trough in the polar jet over the PNW, and a massive ridge for the eastern half of the nation, though it wil be modified by an occasional weak negative NAO, it will be tough to break in the begining, also a Southeast ridge will be dominant in the begining, though there will be cold spells, complete with frost, freeze events in the area… overvall, you will experience wild temperature swings, it will get cold, but the cold may not be as long lived as the last few years, as an Aleutian low has a little more influence than a blocking high in Greenland. Later in the winter, the pattern will modify and allow more cold air to reach coastal areas, though it will not be as cold as years’ past, so not so many prolonged severe cold spells, and extreme cold will have a hard time making to to the lowlands until late winter.
Precipitation: this region will experience near to slightly above normal precip in the north, near normal south, this will be due to more rain and slop (mix) events than snow along the coast, even though storms will be less frequent, and opportunities for big storms outside of Nor’ easters will be below normal due to storms being directed through the Midwest more frequently and missing the east coast, due to more rain than snow, precipitation should still end out near normal for most areas.
Snowfall , however in the end, will end up being around average, even along the coast, since late winter may bring some good winter storms to the region.
Upstate NY, NH, VT, ME will end up above average for snowfall, since more storms will be riding up the west side of the Appalachians.
Next post will be the Mid-Atlantic region…

  1. sapporo1 says:

    P.S. You may ask questions about your town if it falls in the region that I am mentioning in the post at the time, so feel free to ask away in this post, northeasterners.

  2. snowangel78 says:

    Do you know if Western NY which is Buffalo area part of this?

  3. tornadoes2 says:

    sapporo are winter southwestern ontario is going to be warmer than normal in the east and above normal precipitation thanks to el nino in the pacific ocean.

  4. sapporo1 says:

    Snowangel, yes, all of the finger lakes region will be included in the above normal snowfall.
    tornadoes, so far, it still is not looking all that likely that El Nino will set up shop this winter.
    As for sw Ontario, it’s a tough call, but for now, temperatures may be a bit below normal, however there could be stormy times, and there could be some dry times…all in all, maybe changable conditions with slightly cooler than normal temps.

  5. TheMaineMan says:

    I am not far from the Lewiston/Auburn region… usually when storms ride west of the Apps we mostly get rain. I think in the very best case I’ll get average snowfall when all is  said and done, but I wouldn’t be surprised if rain/mild temps melts much of it.
     
    I’m not getting my hopes up at all for the first half of winter, but I think we may see some action in late January through March.

  6. sapporo1 says:

    @Amy n…Connecticut is a coastal state mostly, you will likely see at least average snowfall this winter, but not likely any staggering numbers , and Maineman, I thought you said you lived near the White Mountains, I am going on a limb saying this, but I am going to guess that most of Maine that isn’t on or along the immediate coastline is probably going to take the lion’s share of the cold and snow in the Northeast, you and upstate New York.

  7. TheMaineMan says:

    I agree with you on that, but I still think Northeast + upper NY get average at best while the rest of the east is mostly below-average snowfall. I just think that this winter will belong to the West in general, but we’ll see what happens. I think the second half of winter has much more potential for the Eastern US than the first half, so I don’t think people should be too disappointed if not much as happened by the time mid-January rolls around.
     
    That said, I did see a large flock of geese flying south today….

  8. tornadoes2 says:

    i heard that around christmas time its going to end with cold spells replace with big warm spells and after the new year will get cold and the second half of the winter, we will see winter warm up and a big winter storm for the great lakes and feburary and march it will be trubulent storms at times could see  ice storm and severe weather wx damaging winds and tornadoes and then will we be in for hurry in march being solar maximum with the sun and then there will be changes from that time 2014 in the spring. this solar maximum will start in january it drop and then it will go back up again march.

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