Region 2: Mid-Atlantic

Posted By: sapporo1  Posted On: Oct 18th, 2013  Filed Under: Weather

Temperatures: this area will be under a little bit stronger influence of the Southeast ridge, thus for at least the first half of winter, temperatures will be slightly above normal, though temperatures should moderate later in the season when the ridge breaks down a bit and allows colder air to filter in, there will be some cold shots throughout, but they will not be all that intense until later in the winter season along the coast, just like the Northeast, much of the coldest air will be confined to the Appalachians and westward until later.
Precipitation: I expect this area to have above normal rainfall due to storms being squished into this area along the coast, though I believe snowfall will end out below normal for coastal areas, since even many cold shots in this area will be hard pressed to bring enough cold air to support full on snowstorms, I do expect that there could be a few dangerous ice storms in the area, especially immediately inland from the coastline.
West Virginia mountains should do fine this winter, with normal to slightly above normal snowfall, same goes for all along the Mid Atlantic Appalachian chain (Yes, this includes Virginia)
All in all, expect changable conditions with generally above normal temps and precip.

  1. snowlover says:

    :(.  This sounds a bit like Accuweather’s predition.  Bummer.  I was hoping for a nice, cold, snowy winter.  What exactly is a Southeast Ridge anyway?

  2. sapporo1 says:

    A Southeast ridge is a dome of high pressure that moves into the southeast coast of the US, it influences storms in a way that forces them around the dome, much like an air bubble in water, the big question is…how large or small the ridge ends of being, so just like my forecast, no forecast is set in stone, there are alot of factors that can lead to what the winter will end up being, one of them is the Leezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) which this year, has favored a line from the central/northern Rockies northeast to the Great Lakes and Midwest, so far, from there storms have been deflected into Canada, with much of the cold air missing much of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, this will not always be the case, but with the LRC, the storms may not always be the same strength, or track over the exact same locations, since the LRC is a general pattern,it could still occasionally bring cold air and snow to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

  3. Anthonypilone01 says:

    pfft, I would not believe in accuwether’s outlook in general. they have been wrong for quite a bit. last year, they were predicting a snow winter for us in the mid-atlantic and boy were they wrong. it turned out to be another lousy, disappointing, bloody dud of a winter. I’m tired of being disappointed, I’m sick of the mildness and lacking of so much of snow and sick of all the good snow systems missing us. for once, I’m want our winter to be winter again.

  4. snowlover says:

    Thanks Sapparo1 for the southeast ridge answer. 

  5. snowlover says:

    I’m with ya Anthonpilone1. A duplicate of the 2009/10 season would be marvelous!!!!
     

  6. spellbound says:

    I’m with ya too, the sooner the snow starts the better!!  A repeat of 2009-210 would be heaven sent…. Karen

  7. fhutchens18 says:

    I was checking the NAO forecast for the next 2 weeks.  Starting this week it’s turned sharply positive, but by the 10th of the month and after it starts to trend downward which would suggest that the trough is coming back to the eastern part of the country.  This would correlate to the idea that the Almanac says there is going to be a storm Thanksgiving Week with rain and snow in the mid-Atlantic. Most of the major snow will hold off until January and February.

  8. fhutchens18 says:

    Also, here is the link to where I viewed this information: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml  Also, note the AO. It too starts to trend upward by the 16th of the month and the PNA starts to go positive in time too.  This would be a dream come true for snow lovers in the Eastern U.S.

  9. fhutchens18 says:

    Sorry, the AO starts to trend negative.
     

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