[size="4"]PLEASE READ THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK FOR THE BEST INFO, MANY THANKS, WJP [/size] [size="5"]NOTE: THERE ARE 7 MAPS![/size]


This is my Final Outlook. In this outlook, I will go through, 5 weather maps, the EURO, the PDO, The BEST analog, & a detailed text & clues to the Long Range. I DO NOT COMPLETELY AGREE WITH THE EURO
THE PDO

OK. First, I'll talk about the PDO. It appears that the PDO update will be released tomorrow, but I got a peek at it From What I saw, the PDO has trended fairly strongly positive. This positive trend in the PDO has eliminated many analogs, such as 2006, 1964, & 1968. Lately, the most recent updates on the Long Range models favor a "semi" El Nino Pattern. Below I'll discuss the 3 best analogs.

THE BEST ANALOGS
The 3 best analogs this winter are 1976, 1977, & 2003. October rainfall is a NON FACTOR here, because that can strongly depend on PDO & QBO trends, & BECAUSE OF THIS RISE IN THE PDO & CHANGE IN THE QBO WAVE, THOSE RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS WILL BE DIFFERENT. In addition, I checked several cities in the South & PNW, which has record raionfall, & with the south, it went in the direction of a COLD EASTERN US. [b]However, in the west, I checked SEATTLE, & it pointed to the opposite, a warmer east & colder west!. I checked EACH region with its own anomaly, & everything was jumbled, CANCELLING the oct rainfall influence, in my opinion[/b]. Many of the Computer models, such as the EURO, Japanese, UK, etc, are showing a pattern much like 1976. BELOW IS A SCETCH OF THE EURO WINTER OUTLOOK.

BELOW IS A SCETCH I MADE OF THE EURO MONTHLY OUTLOOK. I'M SORRY I COULD NOT DIRECTLY POST THE LINK, AS THE IMG CODE COULD NOT BE DETERMINED, BUT I PROMISE THESE ARE FOR REAL, I PROMISE. [size="5"]I'M NOT SAYING I AGREE WITH THESE, BUT THEY ARE CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH. [/size]




[size="5"]NOW, BELOW ARE 500 HPA & TEMP ANOMALY OUTLOOKS THAT COINCIDE WITH THE RECENT ENSO & PDO TREND.[/size](BELOW ALSO ARE DETAILS)



[size="4"]Yep, there is a big difference in the N plains region[/size], so I'm not sure what to go with out there. But, as of right now, everything is tipping in the direction of a Cold East & Warm West for DEC - JAN. [b]FEBUARY IS MORE OF A COLD PATTERN THAT ONE MIGHT FIND IN A WEAK EL NINO WITH A STRONG SIGNATURE, SO THAT WILL NEED FURTHER ANALYSIS AS WELL.

[size="4"]BELOW ARE THE MAPS I MADE IN AUGUST[/size].[/b]






MY FORECAST IS MORE ANALOG BASED, & STILL HOLDS, AS I ADE THESE MAPS IN AUGUST, & THEY SEEM TO BE ON TRACK SO FAR. Below is a summary of what I expect this winter.

Basically, for the greater part of the winter, I see a pattern of potential extremes. One thing that Looks fairly consistant with everything I've checked is a Cold & Stormy Mid Atlantic, SE, & NE. My personal opinion here is that the Great Lakes/Midwest will also get in on the Cold, but should see drier than normal conditions. In the west, it looks Warm & dry until FEB, where the SW could get a hefty dose of winter, but the NW remains AVG with AVG precip. BELOW IS A REGION BY REGION OUTLOOK

PNW
FOR THE PNW, I SEE A WINTER THAT IS MUCH MORE "TRANQUIL" THAN THE PAST SEVERAL. WHILE THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF CRIPPLING STORMS & COLD, OVERALL, IT SHOULD BE MORE OF A "BLOWTORCHED" WINTER, WITH BELOW AVERAGE SNOWPACK & ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. BUT WHEN STORMS DO HIT, THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE CRIPPLING, BUT OVERALL, IT WILL BE "QUIET" COMPARED TO SEVERAL PRECIEDING WINTERS.

SW

THIS IS ONE OF THE TROUBLE ZONES. THE TEMPS ARE REALLY NOT THE ISSUE, ITS THE PRECIP. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT CALIFORNIA NEEDS THE RAIN, BUT WILL THEY GET IT. MY ANSWER...YES. WHILE DECEMBER & PARTS OF JAN WINTER LOOKS DRY & WARM, I EXPECT A BIG TURN-AROUND IN FEB, AS HEAVY RAINS, HIGH WINDS, & CRIPPLING MOUNTAIN BLIZZARDS BEING THE COMMON OCCURENCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. IN ALL, I EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG PRECIP & AVERAGE TEMPS.

PLAINS

THIS REGION WAS ONE OF THE HARDEST AREAS FOR ME TO FORECAST. OVERALL, I AM GOING TO CALL FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG TEMPS, WITH MOST OF THE COLD COMING IN THE SECOND HALF OF WINTER. THE S PLAINS SHOULD EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP, WHILE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD BE DRIER. HOWEVER, CRIPPLING BLIZZARDS COULD BE QUITE COMMON IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT S & C TEXAS.

MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES

FOR THIS REGION OF THE COUNTRY, I'M CALLING FOR A VERY COLD WINTER, AGAINST MUCH OF THE MODELING. BUT MY OPINION HERE IS MORE ANALOG HEAVY RATHER THAN COMPUTER MODEL HEAVY. I ANTICIPATE A VERY COLD, BUT DRY WINTER HERE. HOWEVER, ONCE AGAIN, CRIPPLING BLIZZARDS MAY BE COMMON, AS MOST PRECIP THAT FALLS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW.

SE

IN THIS REGION OF THE COUNTRY, I ANTICIPATE A COLD & VERY STORMY WINTER. WHILE THE WORST SHOULD COME IN FEBUARY, THE WHOLE WINTER WILL FEATURE COLD & STORMY WEATHER, AS THE SE RIDGE WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN WILL BE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTANT.

MID ATLANTIC & NE

FOR THIS REGION, IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL, SNOWY WINTER. THE ENTIRE WINTER COULD FAVOR A TRACK OF CRIPPLING NOREASTERS, & I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT OF A JANUARY THAW "THE CLASSIC" BEFORE THINGS RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN. BUT THAW OR NOT, THIS COULD BE A WINTER TO REMEMBER.

I hope you guys enjoyed the outlook

Mmmmm.. Blizzards!!

The forecast is sexy. I wanna touch it.

WJP your check is in the mail!

Brilliantly said Snow.

And what region would you be in for this forecast wjp? Its looks really good, I'm just a little curious.

Question..What part is Mo. considerd??.. I see Midwest ,Plains, Sw, NE , etc. When they say Midwest on FA they included the great lakes.I am use to telling everyone i'm from the midwest ,well, because i am in the middle part of the USA,But when they talk about it on here I am no where near the midwest and no where near the great lakes, and I know i'm not in the plains.
So what part does Mo. fall in??..

Sorry if this seems like a dumb question..Some consider Mo. not a midwest state,we are just .. here

Nativedaughter,
I knew I wasn't nuts! Missouri is in a different section on each of the major weather website maps. If you watch TWC (the weather channel) you don't even get a good view of Mo. We're always jammed into a tiny corner of their "region map closeups", usually under the channel bug.
What kills me is to hear the term "mid-west", then they start talking about... Ohio! Or even better "mid-west"... and they talk about the Rocky's!
You know what I think the problem is??? THEY DON'T KNOW. "Regions" are nothing more than opinions (we all know what opinions are like No one wants to do the weather specifically for Missouri. Why? Because its too unpredictable. Example: that big ice storm we had... our house had ice. the trees were stressed, but only dead limbs came down. When we took a drive 2 miles one direction, 5 miles an other... the ice was WORSE or less. It was hit or miss in "my" area of central Mo.
Frost warnings. Very few have been put out, but my garden has been frosted many, many times this year! Rain/clouds... Oct. gave us almost 12 inches of record setting rain. There were days that were to be "partly cloudy" and no rain mentioned. What we had was full cloud cover and drizzel alllllllll day. Or scheduled to get "less cloud" and no rain... only to have A LOT of cloud and short rains. The weather men just can't predict what we are getting or may get in Mo.
I've been searching the web for Mo. winter predictions. None can be found by anyone IN Mo. and I have found only ONE that even mentions Missouri, by name.
ok, now that I got that off my chest... I look to see what our neighbor states are forecasted to get, look for the jet stream and see what major storms are doing..... I don't have a lot of luck... but at least I know what kind of weather MAY be coming at me.

Your prediction is quite a bit different than NOAA's. It will be interesting to see how this winter plays out. I don't think you will be accurate if the current El Nino stays moderate or strenthens. One would think that a moderate El Nino combined with the current warm phase in the AMO would lead to milder temps for much of the country.

I hope your correct because I live in southeast Texas and we have not have a cold winter in years. The fall/winter of 1976 was our coldest ever and our current temps have been running much warmer.

Im not trying to knock your forecast, I just have my doubts.

Will it snow in Georgia this year