Well, Everything is beginning to come together. All the Long Range Models are going in one direction, the atmosphere is beginnning to become more El Nino Like pressure wise, & The forecasters are beginning to come to a consensus. With the PDO rising, the analogs are becoming clearer. I've been tracking the Analogs, & so far... this fall is behaving Much like year 1976, 1963, & some of 1977 & more of 2003. When looking at fall precipitation analysis, 90% of the Country is following that of 1976, 1963, & 2003. The year 2006, 1968, & 1966 are no longer truly in the runnning, as the mean Temp & Precip Charts no longer match. As the fall pattern has established, & the winter will be, once again, upon us in an instant, catching some of us off guard for what could be a historic winter in the East. COULD BE, not will be. However, by analyzing the pattern, I, & many other forecasters have been taking on to facts listed BELOW.

-RIGHT NOW, IT IS VERY COLD OVER ASIA. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 3-4 WEEKS IN THE WESTERN US, & NEARLY ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT COLD AIR IN ASIA SPILLING OVER THAT RIDGE LIKE A WATERFALL, INTO THE GREAT LAKES & EASTERN US. AS STORMS RIDE DOWN FROM CANADA, & INTERACT WITH THE GULF, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SERIOUS NOREASTERS, WITH SOME BIG CLASSICS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MONTH, & CONTINUEING THROUGH DECEMBER, & POTENTIALLY BECOMING THE MEAN STORM TRACK IN JANUARY.

-THE PDO, WHICH IS STILL RISING... LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN THAT SPIKE A BIT, & MAYBE FALL SOME IN NOV. BUT OVERALL, THIS WILL BE A POSITIVE PDO WINTER. & GUESS WHICH WINTERS MATCHED THE PDO SIGNATURE PERFECTLY... 1976, 1963, & SOME OF 2003. 1976 IS A POSSIBLE MATCH, BUT I PERONALLY BELIEVE IT WILL BE A WINTER MIXED WITH 1976, 2003, & POTENTIALLY SOME OF 2006, BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH. AS WE HEAD INTO DECEMBER, THE PDO... FROM LATEST INDICATIONS... APPEARS TO GO ON THE RISE AGAIN... THUS RESULTING IN A POSITIVE PDO WINTER.

-FEBUARY... HOWEVER... WILL BE A DIFFERENT MONTH. THIS COULD BE A MONTH WHERE THE SOUTHERN STREAM REALLY GETS GOING. ACCORDING TO LATEST INDICATIONS, A PERSISTANT STORM TRACK THRU CALIFORNIA, THROUGH THE SOUTH, & OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WOULD GIVE PLACES LIKE WASHINGTON DC SOME BIG TIME SNOWFALLS, ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERN APPS, MID SOUTH, & SW MOUNTAINS. [u]THE GREAT LAKES COULD WIND UP BEING VERY DRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD[/u]. THIS MONTH IS THE ONE THAT COULD BE SUBJECT TO MAJOR CHANGE, SO DON'T PUT THIS IN THE BANK COMMPLETELY YET.

-LOOKING INTO THE VERY LONG RANGE, THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME OF THE PDO WOULD BE FOR IT TO REMAIN POSITIVE THIS WINTER, BEFORE GOING NEGATIVE AGAIN NEXT SUMMER. THAT COULD SPELL THE RETURN OF WINTER TO THE PNW NEXT YEAR!!!
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someone kindly direct me to a site where I can review the winter of 76 for Missouri.... I'm old....... I can't remember that far back that well.

Search NOAA's site for "winter 1976 analog" or just google it, or the image

wjp, no disrespect but I live in southeast texas and this year in no way resembles 1976. Surface temps are much warmer and water temps in Galveston are running 10 to 13 degrees above what it was in 1976.

Global wamring at work.

The thing to look at isn't one specific location, but the Temp & Precip Patterns of the analogs you're choosing to use. It is virtually impossible for a complete carbon copy of 1976, as some areas of the US are not quite in libe, but overall, THE PATTERNS are favoring a hybrid of 1976, 2003, & 2006. Also, another thing to look at is the trending of the PDO. It is going positive & is matching 1976 perfectly. IN addition, the the timeframe of the recent spike is what makes this so amazingly similar, & the analog charts match up pretty well. So, just because some local climates are not in line for a certain time period is not uncommon. So 1976 could be a winner, but so could 2003, 1963, & 2006. So, we need to pay close attention to what happens now, because every single detail can be crucial.

keep the bigtime snow forcasts coming to da NORTHEAST!!!!!!

After everybody talked about it not true, still a fun expression now!

Exactly. I say that as an expression, COMPLETE with sarcasim from every fiber of my being.

Have fun with it.

The Earth cools.

The Earth warms.

Get over it

I agree wjp. With the El Nino/Winter Cancel scare over. Things do seem to be falling into place.