Farmers’ Almanac Hurricane Update: 9 Named Storms Likely!

It is of no surprise to us here at the Farmers’ Almanac that tropical cyclone activity is beginning to “perk up.” Although June 1 is the official start of hurricane season in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean waters, June and most of July are usually “slack” months. It’s not until we get toward the latter days of July and into August — after the water has had a chance to warm — that activity begins to ramp up.

In the 2008 Farmers’ Almanac, we warned that an active tropical season is expected, with the “Gulf Coast directly in the crosshairs for hurricanes in mid-July, mid-August, and mid-September” (Hurricane Dolly hit the Gulf Coast last week – mid-July).

Farmers’ Almanac forecasts only deal with potential land falling (or close proximity) cases to the U.S. and Canada. There are, however, far more tropical systems that form and affect other regions that are not mentioned in our long-range outlooks.

We are 80 percent confident that we have a total of least nine named storms this season. (To receive a name, a storm must have sustained winds of 39 mph, which makes it a tropical storm.) That will bring us up to the letter I (“Ike”). We think the odds are only 20-40-percent that we’ll see as many as 12 or 13 named storms (“Laura” would be the 12th; “Marco” the 13th).

Typical tropical activity peaks around September 10. The season officially comes to an end on November 30.

Is a hurricane predicted near you? Get our predictions.