Hurricane season is almost here! The season for tropical storms spans from June 1 through November 30, though activity tends to increase beginning in mid-August, and typically peaks on or around Sept. 10.
Last year’s hurricane season was an above average one, with 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes and two major hurricanes. A named storm features sustained winds of at least 39 mph, while a hurricane has sustained winds of at least 74 mph. A major hurricane is any hurricane that reaches category 3 or greater, which requires sustained winds of at least 111 mph. The average year sees around 11 tropical storms, and six hurricanes.
This year, the Farmers’ Almanac is predicting an active tropical storm season. An unusually early threat could materialize during the first week of June over the Gulf of Mexico. Another tropical storm could form and threaten the Gulf in mid-August. Toward the end of August, a hurricane is forecast to be off the Atlantic seaboard, but is expected to stay just offshore. Another hurricane threat is expected along the East Coast during the first week of September. The traditional peak of the hurricane season occurs on September 10. Finally, a very late-season tropical cyclone may adversely influence the weather around Florida and the Bahamas during mid-November.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is also predicting an active year with between 13 and 20 tropical storms and up to six major hurricanes. The Hurricane Forecast Team at the University of Colorado’s 2013 predictions are even more extreme. That group expects 31 named storms, including four major hurricanes, nine other hurricanes, and 18 tropical storms.
Why Name Hurricanes?
The tradition of weather forecasters giving every tropical storm and hurricane a name began in 1953. Until 1979, those names were exclusively female. Now, we use a six set lists that alternate between male and female names, listed alphabetically and in chronological order starting with A and omitting Q and U, X, Y, and Z. If more than 21 names are required during a season, NOAA dips into the Greek alphabet as it did a couple of years ago. Every six years, the names cycle back around and get reused. If a hurricane does tremendous damage (i.e. Andrew, Camille, Katrina), the name is retired and replaced by a different name beginning with the same letter.
2013 Names
This year’s hurricane names are Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, and Wendy.
If you live in area that’s prone to hurricanes, be sure to read our hurricane safety tips!
Caleb Weatherbee is the official forecaster for the Farmers' Almanac. His name is actually a pseudonym that has been passed down through generations of Almanac prognosticators and has been used to conceal the true identity of the men and women behind our predictions.
If you notice a hole in the upper left-hand corner of your Farmers' Almanac, don't return it to the store! That hole isn't a defect; it's a part of history. Starting with the first edition of the Farmers' Almanac in 1818, readers used to nail holes into the corners to hang it up in their homes, barns, and outhouses (to provide both reading material and toilet paper). In 1910, the Almanac's publishers began pre-drilling holes in the corners to make it even easier for readers to keep all of that invaluable information (and paper) handy.
3 comments
I live in Florida about 20 minutes off the coast and there predicting 31 here and you’re worried about 1..??sorry just kinda bothered me see I have a 11 month old son..first born. Ya see
In Connecticut, where I live, we had Hurricane Irene in 2011 & Hurricane Sandy in 2012. I’m thinking this year will be our third straight year that we get a hurricane. With a neutral El Nino & warmer sea water temps, the odds are pretty good for the northeast to be wacked again.
The unusually early threat for a tropical storm matches my forecast. On official forecaster should not be kept secret. Why hide?
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