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Where Have all the Hurricanes Gone?

Things have been rather quiet down in the tropics of late, even though it's hurricne season. As of July 20, 2009, there hasn't been a single named storm in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean waters.

Based on what happened the last few years, one would have expected at least two or three tropical systems at this point in the 2009 hurricane season. In fact, in 2007 and 2008, the first named tropical cyclones made their appearance in May, before the start of hurricane season (which officially begins on June 1).

In contrast, in 2005, a year that saw 27 named storms, including the powerful Hurricane Katrina, there were already eight named storms by August 3rd.

So why is this year so quiet?
Lack of formation in the early season usually is attributed to waters not yet being warm enough to provide the heat storms use as fuel. While the eastern Atlantic Ocean, where monster storms tend to emerge, still isn't warm enough yet, the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean are plenty warm in the early summer. But in addition to water temperature. a greater factor is wind shear--the atmospheric phenomenon that tends to kneecap weather systems before they can consolidate.

"Shear tends to be high this time of year, and it's even higher than normal this year," says James Franklin, branch chief of the specialist unit at the National Hurricane Center. "We're starting off with a pattern that looks very inhibitive across the Atlantic," Franklin said.
The high wind shear could mean the tropics are coming under the spell of an El Niño, a pattern of warm weather in the Pacific Ocean that tends to limit storm formation.

In 1997, the summer that preceded one of the strongest El Niños on record, only seven named storms developed. If the current pattern persists, we could be in line for another pretty quiet season.

But "quiet" doesn't mean "no storms."
A quick look at NOAA’s hurricane archives reveals some worrisome statistics about below-average hurricane seasons.

First, two of the three most powerful hurricanes to strike the United States formed in seasons when there was very little activity otherwise. The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, which is still the most powerful hurricane to make landfall in the United States, formed in a summer that saw only six total tropical systems – far below the 158-year average. That’s the same number of tropical storms that formed in 1992. But 1992 also produced Hurricane Andrew, the third-most powerful hurricane to make landfall.

In 2004, a year that saw 15 named storms - including four that hit Florida (Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne) the first one, Alex, did not form until July 31.

For the period from 1944-2005, the average date of the first storm with at least tropical storm strength is July 10, and the average date of the first hurricane is Aug. 14. Indeed, hurricane season usually doesn't get cranking until early August, traditionally peaking on or about Sept. 10. Conditions can change quickly, and we are in a 20- to 30-year cycle of busy hurricane seasons that started in the late 1990s.

Since the naming of storms began in 1953, the latest a season has gone without a storm is 1977, when Anita formed Aug. 29.

Our Farmers' Almanac forecast for the summer of 2009 projects possible hurricane activity for parts of the Eastern US during early to mid August and again in early to mid September. Only time will tell if this outlook verifies. Stay tuned!

- Written by Caleb Weatherbee, Farmers' Almanac Weather Prognosticator