Each year we are asked to report on our winter weather predictions. Soon thereafter the National Weather Service (NWS), woollybear caterpillars and others weigh in with their projections with periodic updates. This year we are clearly calling of a Cold Winter - Coast to Coast with a couple exceptions.

More recently, the NWS reports - “The strengthening El Niño event will influence the position and strength of the jet streams over the Pacific Ocean, which in turn will impact the winter precipitation and temperature patterns…this event is likely to result in fewer cold air outbreaks than would be expected in a typical non El Niño winter.” In a few words - mild winter.

On the news today, a weatherman suggested that the way the weather has started and the patterns as they exist could lead to some huge snowstorms. With early snows in the Northern Plain States, Upper

Midwest, Buffalo and last night in Maine, and temps in the mid 60s in Florida, we appear to be heading toward winter. The Farmers’ Almanac doesn’t make changes as time passes. We do our predictions to years in advance and have lived with this for almost 200 years.

Last winter the jet streams moved quickly. In order to get that artic cold we need for conditions to cool over northern Canada and then have the jet streams drive it through the US. We think this is the situation. This morning I was asked about acorns - one of my 20 Signs of a hard winter.

I was wondering if there was a meaning behind all the acorns that have fallen. I haven’t seen so many acorns on the ground in all my life. We’ve had tons more fall this year than ever before. Is there a reason for this? Does this mean a colder winter than usual or does this mean a milder than usual winter? Is something behind this? ( S.B. from Annandale, Va.)

I was thinking about this over the weekend. The saying is “an unusual abundance of acorns” is a sign of a very rough winter. The theory is that the more acorns, the more food for the squirrels. I have also read that every so many years (I recall 7) oak trees just have a major production of acorns. Last fall my trees were dropping acorns like rain but it was a mild winter. This year very few… we will see. The answer is the greater the abundance of acorn, the rougher the winter. Time will tell.

Technorati Tags Winter

by pgeiger
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Long before the creation of 24/7 weather channels, people observed nature and prepared for whatever weather came their way.

You know it is going to rain when…

• Bees stay close to their hives,

• Large halo around a moon

• Sound travels far and wide

• Leaves show their backs

• Sheep huddle together

• Your corns or broken bones “talk to you”

• Birds stay on telephone wires

• Ants build walls around their nests

• Swallows fly close to the ground

Sure sign of a bad winter if…

• Spiders spin larger than usual webs and enter your home in numbers

• Unusual abundance of acorns

• Hornets nest is high off the ground

• Early seclusion of bees in a hive

• Squirrels gather nuts early to fortify against a long winter

• Narrow orange band in the middle of a caterpillar warns of heavy snow. If it is fat and fuzzy - bitter cold

More tomorrow.

Technorati Tags Weather Lore

by pgeiger
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Yesterday I shared with you our top 10 Best Weather Cities and today we have flipped the coin and look at what might be considered the worst weather locations in the USA. Since I live in Maine, cold temperatures, rain and snow is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, many people commented when we ran our list that it takes character to live in some o the harsher climates. But, we have to use the same criteria as we did yesterday which include sunshine, sky conditions, precipitation, humidity and wind to determine the “worst” cities for weather.

1. QUILLAYUTE, WASHINGTON—Ever heard of it? Neither had we. In fact, it’s not a city but a location where weather data is accumulated and because of the numbers, it ranks as the number one worst weather location. It is tied with Astoria, Oregon as the cloudiest U.S city (240 days) it is the most humid (83% relative humidity), and it is second in terms of rain (104.5 inches) and number of rainy days (210).

2. ASTORIA, OREGON—ties Quillayute for cloudiest in the nation (240 days), and comes in third in terms of wetness (69.6 inches per year/191 days).

3 & 4. MARQUETTE and SAULT ST. MARIE, MICHIGAN—We had a tie between these cities. They ranked number four and five (respectively) in terms of the coldest U.S. cities and numbers two and three as the snowiest cities. They both also ranked seventh and eighth among the rainiest cities. If you enjoy lots of rain, snow and cold weather, these are two places you must visit!

5 & 6. SYRACUSE and BINGHAMTON, NEW YORK—Similarly, two cities in New York State ran very close to each other in terms of cloud cover and precipitation. Syracuse ranks fourth among the rainiest cities in the U.S. (171 days); Binghamton came in tenth (162 days). Binghamton is among the top ten cloudiest cities (212 cloudy days annually) while Syracuse ranks fourth among the snowiest cities with 111.6 inches annually. Being adjacent to the St. Lawrence storm track and subject to color air masses approaching from the west and north, these cities must continually endure unsettled weather patterns.

7. ELKINS, WEST VIRGINIA—tied Syracuse for fourth rainiest city in the U.S. and also ranked just behind Binghamton in the number of cloudy days (211).

8. NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA—landed among the top ten in terms of wettest cities (59.74 inches annually) as well as among the most humid (75.5%). Living in New Orleans during the summer requires air conditioning!

9. EUGENE, OREGON—Ranked high in the cloud and humidity department. It experiences 209 cloud-filled days annually, and has an average relative humidity that ties New Orleans for eighth place overall.

On a positive note, the abundant moisture and moderate temperatures result in rapid growth of timber evergreens. This is a major industry here.

10. HILO, HAWAII—Hawaii is usually assumed to a paradise with sun-filled skies and perfect weather year-round. But this is not necessarily the case with Hilo. This humidity is number one among U.S. cities in terms of average annual precipitation with a whopping 128 inches. In fact, the wettest part of Hawaii (over 200 inches) is only about six miles up-slope from the city limits. Hilo also ranks number one in terms of the number of rainy days (277). So there is at least a 75 percent chance that on any given day in Hilo, some rain will fall.

Weather is just that, weather. We love it, we hate it. We talk about it every day. If you’re getting married you want sunshine, if you’re going to ski, it has to snow. Want a tan, hey, sunshine is a must. We all live in communities for a variety of reasons. The criteria we used to select our ten best and worst weather cities were strictly statistical.

In the near future, check the Farmers’ Almanac™ web site. We’ll be asking you to comment on your favorite weather cities and watch for a new list.

Technorati Tags Worst Weather Cities

by pgeiger
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We all enjoy reading lists of the best and the worst of almost everything. From time to time I’m asked what are the best cities for weather and what do we consider the worst. I’ve even been asked to select a location for someone who’s trying to relocate from a part of the country they dislike.

In the 2002 Farmers’ Almanac™, we addressed this very issue. Keeping in mind that any list is highly subjective, the factors we considered included temperatures, sky conditions, precipitation, humidity and wind. Working on the assumption that heat is a good thing and rain, sleet and snow is bad, let me present our list of the 10 Best Weather Cities in the USA.

1. YUMA, ARIZONA—number one on our list because average precipitation is 2.65 inches, 17 rainy days per year, and number one for sunshine with 90%. It is third among the least humid cities, with an average relative humidity of just 38%. The drawback–—summer temperatures average at least 100º F from June 4 to September 24, and 105ºF from June 22 to August 26. But, hey, it’s dry heat!

2. LAS VEGAS, NEVADA—comes in second to Yuma in terms of annual precipitation at 4.19 inches, least number of rainy days per year (26), and sunshine 85% of the time.

3. PHOENIX, ARIZONA—tied with Las Vegas for number two in terms of possible annual sunshine (85%). It also has the lowest relative humidity at 37% and rated fifth overall in terms of the least annual precipitation with 7.11 inches and eighth for the least number or rainy days (36).

4. EL PASO, TEXAS—boasts abundant sunshine, very low relative humidity, scanty rainfall and relatively mild winters.

5. RENO, REVADA—abundant sunshine throughout the year. Here the daily range of temperatures often exceeds 45ºF. While afternoon temperatures may be above 90ºF, a light wrap is often needed after sunset. Rain occurs chiefly in the form of afternoon summer thunderstorms, but the humidity is very low during summer and moderately low during the winter.

6. ALBUQUERQUE, NEW MEXICO—has an arid climate with abundant sunshine, low humidity, scant precipitation, a and wide, yet tolerable, seasonal range of temperatures.

7. WINSLOW, ARIZONA—is the seventh least humid city (46%) and eighth driest with annual precipitation totaling only 7.64 inches.

8 & 9. BISHOP and BAKERSFIELD, CALIFORNIA—both make it onto the list because they ranked respectively as the third and fourth driest cities overall. Bishop has 29 rainy days and Bakersfield has only 37 during the year.

10. SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA—during the spring and summer typically sees low marine clouds at night and early morning but they burn off as the day warms. The storm track from the Pacific usually lies well to the north keeping most of the clouds and precipitation out of the region. With the exception of the Santa Ana winds blowing during September and October, temperatures are quite comfortable.

So there you have it. Based upon sunshine, heat, low humidity and the other criteria, this was our selection of the best weather cities in the United States as reported in the 2002 Farmers’ Almanac.

Stay tuned tomorrow for our list of the 10 Worst Weather Cities and plans for compiling a new list.

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by pgeiger
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For many of us in the Northern States we are seeing a “return to summer this week.” Is this Indian Summer? And how did the term come about?

The term Indian Summer is used when we experience a little revival of summer after it should have ended. The sky is usually cloudless, but hazy or even smoky looking especially looking toward the horizon.

In England this warming trend used to be called Little Summer of St. Luke if it happened in October, or St. Martin’s Summer if it happened in November. Today, everyone refers to it as Indian Summer, although no one seems to know the origins of the name. My definition is that Indian Summer occurs only after we have experienced our first freeze and the temperatures are warmer than normal for two or more days.

There are several stories, however, that tell about early settlers mistook the haze of the late New England autumn air for the campfires of Indians, thus the name Indian Summer. Do you have a theory on the origins? No matter when, where or how, it is always enjoyed.

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by pgeiger
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