Everyone has been asking for it and finally winter has a grip on parts of the East and again in the Midwest. I had an opportunity to travel to Florida last week. When I left Maine at 6am on Monday, it was a balmy 7 degrees (-10 wind-chill). With all the chaos caused by winter weather I was caught up in the thrill of flying but it wasn’t the weather. In my case I managed 2 mechanical delays on two different flights. Six hours later I arrived. It was worth the wait…. Florida weather was magnificent. I drove through Alligator Alley (between Miami and Tampa) and didn’t see even one beast. In Maine we have Moose Crossing signs but I rarely see them at these spots.

For many parts of the US and Canada, we think that there is more winter, but not much more. We talk about storms at the end of February and then early March. As we move into mid March, we call for thunderstorms and rains that sound more like Spring. If so, this has been an unusually short winter for the East and a rough one for the Midwest and Northwest. Let’s see what happens.

Anyone who travels frequently knows that it can be difficult at times. It is one thing to get to the airport hours early and another to sit on planes for countless hours. The mess involving Jet Blue reminded me of our 1995 Patient’s Bill of Rights. Our plan was to charge or receive free services from doctors who keep patients waiting. It was a campaign that most people could associate. So, when the CEO of Jet Blue went on TV for damage control I saluted his efforts to right a wrong. Known for their quality service, the weather and internal problems sent them into a tailspin.

I am all for repaying customers when they sit for an unusual amount of time. I hope the Jet Blue’s proposal becomes widespread among all carriers. The one thing that drives me “crazy” is how poorly businesses communicate during difficult times. Part of our Patient’s Bill of Rights simply asked doctors to phone home if they are going to be late or advise us in the waiting room of expected delays. Ditto for the airlines. One friend sat a full 4 hours in an airport past departure time before the airline made any mention of when they might depart. How difficult is it to say we will not depart on time and we have no clue why?? Anything is better than no communications. Pilots and airport staff could keep tempers down by being considerate.

Later this week I will share the logic behind “In Like a Lion…. Out like a Lamb” weatherism for the month of March. Stay tuned.

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by pgeiger
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This was a Valentine’s Day to remember for much of the US. From Ohio to Maine, 12″ - 36….” it is white, bitter cold and starting to look a lot like Christmas. This winter was late in coming, but it here and has given new life to snow blowers, plows, and shovels. I cleared four driveways last night, and mine again this morning. Too much exercise.

Every day I get questions about storms…. here are a couple from Denver.

Is there going to be a bad snowstorm in Denver yet this year? I’ve heard the almanac says the worst of the century!!! My name is Howard

We heard there was a prediction for March 2007 of the “Storm of the Century” for snow that might affect Colorado, but I can’t find anything on the web about it? Cathy

Howard and Cathy - The “Storm of the Century” designation usually comes from the media. I can think of at least eight that were called the “Storm of the Century,” or “Mini Storm of the Century,” just in the last 15 years. So, while Colorado has had its share of winter, I don’t see anything to qualify as the

“Storm of the Century.” The Farmers’ Almanac never uses that terminology. I think the worst of the snow (for Colorado) is behind you, but we still think it will be cold. You are welcome to go to our site and click on weather and Zone 4 for specifics. Denver has had a memorable winter, but if any area were a candidate for a “Storm of the Century” this year, Oswego County, N.Y. would be the one.

Often we judge winter by what happens in the major media centers, including New York and Washington D.C. In reality, the Northwest, Midwest, and now the Northeast, have experienced substantial winter conditions with more on the way. California has lost crops to a deep freeze, and I am told it has been a bit nippy even in Florida. It is not over, but Spring isn’t far behind. Stay warm.

If you have photos of snow in your area and want to share them, fee free to send to my attention at pgeiger@farmersalmanac.com.

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by pgeiger
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The top story on the CNN website reads as follows:

A bone-chilling Arctic cold wave with temperatures as low as 42 below zero shut down schools for thousands of youngsters Monday, halted some Amtrak service and put car batteries on the disabled list from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes.

My company has a walking challenge with a local elementary school in Lewiston. The kids are inside all week, which helps the adults catch up. Coast to coast it is long awaited bone chilling weather. The 2007 Farmers’ Almanac has an article on Frostbite and Hypothermia, which I am reproducing below. The cold can be a killer. Dress in layers and be careful going outside.

What are Frostbite and Hypothermia?

Frostbite is a severe reaction to cold exposure that can permanently damage its victims. A loss of feeling and a white or pale appearance in fingers, toes, or nose and ear lobes are symptoms of frostbite.

Hypothermia is a condition brought on when the body temperature drops to less than 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Symptoms of hypothermia include uncontrollable shivering, slow speech, memory lapses, frequent stumbling, drowsiness, and exhaustion.

If frostbite or hypothermia is suspected, begin warming the person slowly and seek immediate medical assistance. Warm the person’s trunk first. Use your own body heat to help. Arms and legs should be warmed last because stimulation of the limbs can drive cold blood toward the heart and lead to heart failure. Put the person in dry clothing and wrap their entire body in a blanket. Never give a frostbite or hypothermia victim something with caffeine in it (like coffee or tea) or alcohol. Caffeine, a stimulant, can cause the heart to beat faster and hasten the effects the cold has on the body. Alcohol, a depressant, can slow the heart and also hasten the ill effects of cold body temperatures.

Information courtesy of FEMA.

What are the symptoms of frostbite?

Frostbite happens when the skin and the tissues underneath it actually freeze. Winds and cold temperatures are the culprits, as well as not dressing properly for the cold outdoors. Frostbite affects children more than adults, as children lose more heat through their skin. The first symptom of frostbite, called frostnip, is the least severe form, and usually leaves the skin feeling numb and looking white. Cheeks, noses, and ears are most frequently frostnipped. When the skin thaws or warms, the affected area will become red and painful. With even more severe frostbite, the skin may appear white and feel very numb, meaning that the tissue has started to freeze. Very severe frostbite may cause blisters and damage to structures, such as tendons, muscles, and bone.

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by pgeiger
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The BIG news is that Punxsutawney Phil came out of his hole and has declared an “Early Spring.” Of course he did it amid snow. It is a wonder how he made the prediction since there were hundreds of lights and TV crews (including Farmers’ Almanac TV) in attendance. There had to be a shadow of sorts.

So, while that Phil predicts an early spring, this Philom. believes we will get that elusive winter over the next six weeks.

Actually Feb. 2nd is the official midpoint between Winter and Spring. There are six more weeks before we rejoice in warmer more pleasant weather. Here is a timely question from Cindy in Morrison, N.Y., to ponder:

Do you or anyone else in some corner of the world think there would be a different outcome of Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction since February 2, 2007 is the full Snow moon ~ and notably ~ Groundhog’s Day! And, would there be a difference in Phil’s prediction if his shadow was seen by Moonlight rather than Sunlight?

It is a great coincidence that today just happens to be a Full Moon - The Snow Full Moon. The fact that it has been snowing in Western Pa. for the last seven days seems appropriate for this Moon. I’m not sure that it means anything, except that it might be a tad colder if you can actually see the Moon tonight. In terms of seeing his shadow by Moonlight, there is actually a kernel of truth to the groundhog. If he sees his shadow, it is because it is clear, and usually colder, because earth lacks the clouds that keep it insulated. So, he sees his shadow and heads back because it is cold.

I did an interview this morning on WPR Radio (New York City). I guaranteed six more weeks of winter. I also promised a couple of snowstorms for New York. I am sure of the first, and working on the second.

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by pgeiger
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While each section of the country has its own prognosticating groundhog, the seer of all weather seers is Punxsutawney Phi of Punxsutawney, Penna. Residents have visited Phil’s home since 1887. His followers claim he has never been wrong. I would argue that he might have goofed a few times, but no one is perfect. In addition to Phil, other communities have their own Groundhogs including Chipper in Boston who tends to neglect his duties unless enticed by a groundhog of the opposite sex; Pothole Pete (I like that name) in New York, who was named by an eighth grade student in a contest; and General Lee in Atlanta, who some claim has very little forecasting responsibility because f the mild winters in the region. A few years ago we reported on Wiartin Willie of Ottawa, Canada. He has been at it for over 50 years. If your town has a groundhog worth noting, I’d like to hear about him or her.

Tomorrow is Groundhog Day. Our poll is close on this one:

35% - Six more weeks of winter, he’ll see his shadow.
28% - No shadow, early Spring
37% - No Shadow and I want more snow and cold. Bring winter on!

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by pgeiger
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