On Labor Day, I had the pleasure of being interviewed on the Dave Rutherford Show which airs in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. I find Canadians to be very insightful and offer great questions during call in programs. One caller asked about my impression of Solar Cycle 24. I have read about it but had to do some digging. Solar Activity cycles first started being named in 1755. A man named Rudolf Wolf devised a way to calculate sunspot cycles in 1848. An expert on sunspot lore, Wolf confirmed the existence of a cycle in sunspot numbers. He more accurately determined the cycle’s length to be 11.1 years by studying historical records. I asked Farmers’ Almanac astronomer, Joe Rao, for his take on Cycle 24.“Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research recently announced a new solar activity forecast model* indicating that the next 11-year solar cycle, Cycle #24, is expected to have a 30-50% higher number of sunspots than the current Cycle #23. Sunspots are correlated to solar activity, solar flares and radiation storms, and geomagnetic activity in Earth orbit, so the environment of our satellites orbits will be comparably more intense. It does predict that there will be more storms and an overall increase in average storm intensity compared to the current cycle. The model also predicts that Cycle #24 will be as intense as two previous cycles, #21 and #22, and this is the critical factor. Most satellites have withstood these levels previously, and are designed to withstand environments of this intensity.

So . . . what does this all mean? Hopefully, if this forecast is correct, many of our important satellites on which we rely upon for radio, television and phone service will be able to stand up to the increased levels of solar radiation produced by potent solar flares and geomagnetic storms. There is also an up side to this: spectacular displays of the aurora borealis (”northern lights”) may become more frequent and may be seen at more southerly latitudes than they normally are observed.”

There are websites devoted to Cycle 24. Some people predict major disruptions on earth because of the intensity of the solar flares as Joe mentions above. During an earlier cycle, I do remember more frequent “Northern Lights”. That would be a treat. So like it or not, we will soon enter Solar Cycle 24… we’ll see the impact on communications along with a few benefits.

If you are a late night person, tonight (or should I say Friday morning) at 1am - 2am. I will be doing an annual call in program with long time friend, Peter Anthony Holder on CJAD/CFRB Radio in Montreal and Toronto. If you are up and can get the station, give us a call.

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