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End of The Year Weather

I love watching weather between Christmas and New Year’s Day. During this stretch we sometimes find our weather can be in a real funk. Snow in New England and the Midwest, heavy fog for Minneapolis, rain in Atlanta, temperatures as low as 35 degrees in Phoenix and travel is almost always disrupted. All of this is happening the last week of December 2007. While it isn’t possible for us to be 100% accurate doing our predictions 2 years in advance, it is gratifying to receive notes like this one from Denver.

The Farmers’ Almanac got it right this time. The local forecast for Christmas day in Denver was a 50% chance of snow, up to an inch. By the time we woke up yesterday there was about three inches and it continued to snow until after 5:00pm. In the end we had close to a foot at our house, and most parts of town received over five inches. Your forecast of “Heavy snows over the Rockies and Plain states” is much more accurate. Now we’ll see if the next system - forecast for 30% chance of light snow by locals - will actually be much more. Happy New Year! Missy.

The General Manager of a local television station, realizing I am a news-aholic ( I watch this station 4 hours each day),sent a note saying “you continue to be considered one of our top fans. Seems your snow predictions are coming true this year!”.

We are doing well with the Northeast, Midwest and Colorado. My New Year’s wish is to see our prediction for colder temperatures in the Southeast come true.

Whatever your hopes for the New Year, I hope they come true, too. The Farmers’ Almanac has seen hundreds of years come and go. These can be stressful times, which makes it especially important for us to take a moment to be grateful for what we have and to truly count our considerable blessings.

Happy New Year for the staff of the Farmers’ Almanac, and all the best for 2008.

Pete Geiger, Philom.

Editor

Cold Full Moon

 There are many last minute activities as we had into the Christmas Holiday. As we do look for a  Full Moon at 8:16pm on December 23rd. We refer to this as the Full Cold Moon. You can tell if a moon is moving toward a Full Moon or a New Moon based upon it’s shape. If you can form a “D” with the lit part, it is  dilating towards a Full Moon. If you can form a “c” with the lit part, it is constricting towards a New Moon.

The Winter Solstice occurs on Saturday, December 22nd. The latest sunrise and sunset do not occur on the night of the solstice. The earliest sunset occurred on December 8th this year and the latest sunrise will be on January 5, 2008. Native Americans names Full Moons a long time ago. The Moon was so named due to the weather getting cold this night and the nights being the longest and darkest during December.

This month’s Full Moon is sometimes called the Moon before Yule. The Long Night Moon is a doubly appropriate name because the winter night is indeed and because the Moon is above the horizon for a long time. The midwinter Moon has a high trajectory across the sky because it is opposite of the low Sun.

. Enjoy time with family and friends. And, don’t forget the neighbor who may be alone this time of year. Merry Christmas and all the best wishes for the New Year

Heart Attack

The three days with the greatest number of heart attacks each year occur on December 24 & 25 and January 1st. Some of it has to do with exerting oneself when shoveling snow. But, the greatest reasons for attacks (and deaths) this time of the year include:

* Stress of shopping and the ultimate deadline of Christmas.

* Number of visitors and ways in which lives are disoriented at home or while visiting.

* Eating foods that are high in fat content and/ or just overeating.

* Lack of exercise - going off the exercise wagon as we get closer to the holidays.

* Too much alcohol.

So, approach this Holiday season with a positive attitude. Eat well but not too much and don’t forget to exercise and you’ll welcome in the New Year.

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Winter Officially Arrives Saturday

Winter is almost here. It arrives at 5:00am (Eastern time) on December 22nd and will stay around until March 20th at 1:48 am. Here are some snow facts:

• Snow is a killer. It kills because of overexertion, traffic accidents, avalanches and more.

• Among large cities Syracuse NY gets the most (about 116 inches) but if you go to Marquette, Michigan you can experience 138 inches and Sault Ste. Marie, Mi. gets 117 inches. There are other places that get more such as Valdez, Alaska with 326.8 inches, Blue Canyon, Ca. with 240 and Mt. Washington, NH at 259.6 inches but let’s not go there. (More on Mt. Washington later).

• Practically every part of the US has seen snow, even Southern Florida and Arizona. There was even snow (1 inch) at the Phoenix AZ. airport on January 20, 1933. A few days ago, I shared a note from a citizen of Louisiana lamenting the lack of snow. But, on average areas of that state gets: Baton Rouge 0.2 inches, Lake Charles 0.3, New Orleans 0.2 and Shreveport a whopping 1.5 inches. So anything is possible almost anywhere.

• Snow is an excellent insulator.

Speaking of Mt. Washington, a friend (Chris) climbed New England’s highest mountain (6,000+ ‘) last weekend. The day started at -10 degrees (C) with 75 mph winds gusting to over 100 for a wind chill of -45 degrees. Thankfully it improved to -25 wind chill. It was reported to be a “great day to be outside” Chris is pictured below.

As we approach Christmas, no matter where you live - think snow. Anything is possible..

chris1.jpg

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Be Careful What You Wish For

With all the news coverage of snow and ice, I thought this was an interesting letter.

Everyone always predicts snow everywhere in the U.S with the exception of the one place that always would like to see snow and that is northern Louisiana. Why is it that the weather conditions are never good enough for it to snow here? My grandchildren may never know what snow looks like. Can I put a request in for snow?

Juanita from Louisiana.

Juanita,

Requests (for snow) are happily taken but remember I am merely the messenger…. not the snow maker. I think your grandchildren are in the wrong place.I don’t know exactly where you live but Shreveport, La. gets 1.5 inches of snow per year (on average over the last 50 winters). My first suggestion is to move the clan to Maine. We just got hit with 12 inches of snow on top of three earlier storms. Our lakes are frozen solid and the wind chill is sub zero. Another suggestion is to plan a vacation to this winter wonderland. Then you can take winter and snow in small doses.

You might be careful about what you wish for. If I had it in my power, I’d give you lots of snow but Colorado, the Great Lakes and many parts of the Midwest and Northeast are having all the snow and associated fun one can ask for. While it may not snow in your backyard there are lots of places to go.

On a side note. If you watched pro football yesterday, several stadiums were buried in snow. So, there is plenty out there and more coming. The Farmers’ Almanac even calls for a Christmas Day snow in some parts of the US. Check it out. This is proving to be a winter of contrasts. We are seeing warmer conditions it the South but plenty of action elsewhere.

Also, if you haven’t watched our video “Yes, Virginia, There Is A Santa”, I encourage you to do so and to share with friends. It puts you in the Spirit of the Holidays and can be found on our home page.

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Storm Damage

You may be reading this from Southern Florida and not know what the big deal is around the country. But, there is some wild weather out there this week and much more coming on December 8-11th we called for rain/snow in the Midwest. The result was a massive ice storm. While we didn’t use the “I” word, we nailed the precipitation for much of the central part of the US.

For the Mid-Atlantic and New England region on December 12-15th we call for snow with significant accumulations. As I write this message we are seeing snow - some places heavy - and rain along the coast. There is another bigger storm predicted for the East Coast this weekend.

With all this nasty stuff coming down, I am interested in any photos of what it looks like in your neighborhood. If you can share photos, I’ll post them on my site. Tom and Mary Lou Hood live in Southern Illinois and are tending to down trees. What does it look like at your home??

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Winter Weather Glossary

Yesterday we discussed the terms used in describing winter ice. Today, here are more winter weather terms worth noting - if you live in the Northern states, you’ll hear many of these this winter. In fact there is talk of a blizzard this weekend for the Mid- Atlantic States.

Blizzard - a violent winter storm with winds above 32 mph/51 kph, and visibility less than 500 feet/ 150 meters because of falling and bowing snow. Sometimes the term, ground blizzard, is used to describe a storm in which all the airborne snow has been resuspended from what had previously fallen.

Cold wave - An abrupt onset of unusually cold weather; a rapid fall in temperature within 24 hours.

Hail - Precipitation in the form of balls or lumps of ice, having a diameter of 5 millimeters or greater. Anything smaller is referred to as ice pellets.

Whiteout An optical phenomenon that is produced when a uniform cloud cover forms over an unbroken cover, with these conditions all sense of depth and orientation is lost in a uniformity white glow. More commonly, we refer to a white out as the condition when driving that the snow drives at you horizontally with such speed and density that you can’t see the road. Essentially, you are blinded by the white.

Windchill Index - The cooling effect of any combination of temperature and wind. Originally developed in 1939 by Paul Sipel, an expert on climate conditions, it has been recalculated in recent years to better conform to actual observed outdoor conditions. Here is the latest windchill chart from NOAA.

Wind Chill Chart

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Ice Storms

The US weather map is in a real state of flux. Warm conditions in the South but winter in the Plains and Northeast. I a woke to 0 degrees this morning and no heat wave in sight. The Midwest is experiencing ice conditions that remind me of the Great Northeast Ice Storm of 1998 that knocked out power to 75% of Maine residents for up to 14 days. So, here is some insights into what, where and why of ice.

So, What Is Ice?

Simply defined, ice is the solid form of water. Water freezes at 32° Fahrenheit (0° Celsius). But ice won¹t form on its own between 32°F and -40°F. Liquid water and water vapor need specks of dust, dirt, or other debris to serve as a nucleus around which the hexagonal (six-sided) crystals of ice can form. This is why water droplets can be ³supercooled² and remain liquid below 32°F.

Types of Icy Weather

Icy weather can occur in many forms; as snow, sleet, hail, or freezing rain. Ice can deposit on objects as hoar frost, rime, or glaze. Ice fog, or freezing fog, is yet another type ice.

Snow

Snow forms when water vapor in a cloud condenses and creates crystals of ice. Snowflakes can be made up of just one crystal or of many crystals. When the ice crystals grow to be heavier than air, they fall to earth. The largest snowflakes on record occurred during a snowstorm on January 28, 1887, in Ft. Keough, Montana where snowflakes 15 inches in diameter were observed!

Snowflakes, like their parent ice crystals, are six-sided. The beauty, diversity, and complexity of snowflakes are breathtaking.

Sleet and Hail

The biggest confusion people have, when it comes to icy weather, is between hail and sleet, says Matt Noyes, a good friend and meteorologist with New England Cable News (NECN). Hail tends to be observed during the summertime, and occurs during a thunderstorm. A hailstone is basically a ball of layered ice, very much like an onion. If you were to cut a hailstone open you¹d see layers inside much like you’d see if you cut open an onion.

Strong winds lift raindrops upwards, where they freeze, attract more moisture and become ice pellets. This process continues as the pellets come into contact with more raindrops and eventually the ball of ice becomes heavier than the wind can support: that’s when you have a hailstone that finally falls to the ground.

A sleet pellet and notice that instead of a “hail-stone”usually falls during the wintertime. Sleet occurs in the winter when there¹s a warm layer of air above a freezing layer near the ground.

Freezing Rain

Freezing rain is just rain that freezes on contact.

Basically, it¹s warm above your head it may even be warm 10 feet off the ground but the ground temperature is below freezing. You get regular raindrops that fall from the sky, but when they hit the very cold ground, they freeze on contact. Sometimes with freezing rain, the air temperature can be above freezing, but if the ground itself is below freezing, the rain still freezes on contacton objects like power lines and tree limbs.² The smooth, icy glaze formed by freezing rain coats trees, bushes, fences, telephone wires, and streets. It¹s beautiful to look at, but it can break tree limbs, down power lines, and create treacherous roads.

Glaze

Glaze is an accumulation of freezing rain. If you have freezing rain that falls long enough, you end up accumulating a glaze on cold surfaces.

Glaze is a smooth, clear, mostly transparent ice that forms as a frozen film on objects. It¹s usually less than an inch thick, but can be much thicker; an ice storm in January 1961 encased wires in northern Idaho in eight inches of glaze.

Ice Storms

Meteorologists issue an ice storm warning if a coating of ice a half inch thick or more is expected. That’s because once the ice builds up that much, there¹s enough stress on wires and tree branches to actually break them. There¹s enough weight from the ice that it can cause things to collapse and you can have structural damage.

While ice storms are most commonly caused by freezing rain, they can also be caused by sleet. Sometimes we see a sleet storm in which the sleet, because it¹s basically ice pellets, collects on the ground almost like balls of ice.That¹s why we see problems with road conditions not only from freezing rain causing a glaze, but also from sleet.

As we are seeing into he Midwest, ice storms can be among the most dangerous and disruptive of storms. Glaze on wires causes electrical, telephone, and cable TV outages. Slip-and-fall injuries are common due to icy steps and sidewalks. Driving is especially hazardous over 85 percent of the fatalities in ice storms result from traffic accidents.

One of the worst ice storms in recent memory took place in 1998, with devastating effects in Quebec, Ontario and New Brunswick, Canada, and the northeastern U.S. The storm caused 56 deaths, primarily from hypothermia or carbon monoxide poisoning, and damages of more than $5.4 billion. Over 4.5 million Canadians were without power, as were 56,000 New Hampshire residents and 80 percent of Maine¹s residents. In places, it took more than three weeks to restore the electricity. In Montreal, traffic lights were out, the subway system closed, and radio and television stations had no broadcast signals. The storm that has blanketed the Midwest will certainly rival the ‘98 storm in terms of intensity and damage.

Ice fog and freezing fog

Fog occurs when clouds form near the ground. Clouds are usually made up of water droplets, but they can also be made of ice crystals, if it¹s very cold. Ice fog forms when droplets of water freeze into ice crystals in midair.

Rime and Hoar Frost

Rime is the often sugary-looking ice that forms on objects as the result of a freezing fog, a phenomenon that regularly occurs on mountaintops. The Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire, known as the ³Home of the world¹s worst weather,² has spectacular formations of rime ice, or ³frozen fog,² since freezing fog frequently cloaks the summit. Super cooled water droplets in clouds create the feathery rimeup to a foot an houron the windward sides of buildings and weather instruments.

How can you see rime ice without taking a snow tractor to the top of Mount Washington? Look for rime formations along the banks of riverson tree branches, for example, as fog often occurs above rivers.

Hoar frost is the ice that grows on solid surfaces from the water vapor in air. If it¹s freezing outside and warm inside, water vapor on a windowpane sublimes directly into ice, forming frost. Frost differs from rime and glaze in that frost develops from the vapor, or gas, phase into a solid (sublimation), and never goes through the liquid phase (condensation). Rime condenses to the liquid phase before it freezes.

Since objects may be colder than the air, frost may appear even when the temperature outside is above freezing.

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Salt and Christmas Trivia

I noticed over the weekend a report that the Federal Government is going to try and regulate the consumption of salt (good luck). As we know an overuse of salt can lead to high blood pressure and a host of problems. We had one little tid bit in a recent Almanac as follows:

To reduce your salt intake: Add salt to your food at the table rather than during the preparation. Also, rinse and strain canned vegetables before cooking.

Personally, I’ve never seen someone pour on the salt before ever tasting it? I never salt my food before eating it and even then, I’ve become use to to not salting at all.

Looking for a great gift for an older person?
How about audiotapes of books, a tasks of-the-month for them such as snow shoveling, washing windows or homemade coupons for movies, food or groceries. Do you have an elderly person in your neighborhood. Some of these ideas would be nice and inexpensive for just about anyone.

Christmas tree trivia
Grover Cleveland was the fist U.S. President to use electric lights on a Christmas tree in the White House. Each bulb had to wired separately on the tree. the year - 1895.

Did you know…. About one-tenth of the earth’s surface is permanently covered with ice.
We believe the Farmers’ Almanac was green long before being green was “fashionable”. The company that manufactures the Farmers’ Almanac also makes millions of time planners and calendars and has been doing such since 1878 - Geiger Bros. Mark in the Book Bindery Dept. decided that he wanted to be environmentally friendly and did so making a snowman and baby out of paper trimmings. So in the spirit of the season, here is the editor and new found (created) friend with his Almanac.

Shipping Christmas Cookies… Fruitcake Poll

Are you shipping cookies to loved ones this holiday?? Here is an item from a past Farmers’ Almanac. Before you bake think of what kind of cookies or goodies will travel best. Solid types of cakes and cookie bars, or moist and soft drop cookies travel best. Use packaging materials in layers, and warp cookies in pairs, back to back. Cushion them, with popcorn, another edible in the package. And, if you shape the cookies just right, you could use a Pringles or similar container. I understand you have to mail packages now to get to soldiers prior to Christmas. If it is an edible, it will be appreciated any time of the year.

With colder temps outside, woodstoves and fireplaces are going 24/7. So, what is the best wood to burn? Consider this…. the density of the wood is important. If properly dried, heavier, denser woods will deliver more btu per cord. Wood burns best when it is one or two years old. Hardwood burns the best and longest, while spruce and pine burn faster. For a slightly fancier or different type of fire, try some fruit woods. Apple and cherry add fragrance and birch gives a blue flame.

My final word on wood. How come wood pops when put on fire? All wood contains pockets of pitch, sap and other flammables. As the wood heats up, the warmth penetrates deep into these pockets.The gases expand rapidly when heated. As they expand, they put tremendous pressure on the walls of their pockets. Finally, the walls can’t take it anymore and burst. At that time the popping sound is heard. Obviously, woods, like pine and fir go “crazy” because of the large amounts of sap that explode. But, all woods exert a popping sound.

Speaking of food. One holiday “delight” or “disaster” is the fabled fruitcake. When my Dad and I would travel to Atlanta each January, we bought a dozen fruitcakes. It wasn’t the joy of consuming them as much as a fundraiser for a local service organization. On our home page our poll is simple - “do you like fruitcake”. Currently, it is running 50 / 50. But, fruitcake takes a beating on late night talk shows. So, before you leave the site, vote on this one.

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