By now you may have seen our article on the weather page “Nature Agrees with Farmers’ Almanac’s Cold Winter Outlook.” It talks about the many different natural signs of a hard winter as well as shares some of the clues that have been noticed by our web visitors.

If you haven’t read it, be sure to read it now. And be sure to check out the comments people have been leaving here and on the forum

There is a fun discussion going on about what folks are seeing in their backyards as far as signs of an early or rough winter ahead. Some of these comments or observations include spotting:

Big spider webs

Thick hickory nut shells

Thick and tight corn shucks

Spoon in persimmon seeds

Squirrels all of a sudden quit eating nuts and are storing them,

Thick bark

Up here, near Lake Ontario, in the middle of apple orchards, I take my clue about upcoming winters from the Mountain Ash tree. This year, there are many berries but not so many that the boughs are bending toward the ground. So, my guess is that this winter will be normal, cold and snowy but not overly so.

I’ve noticed starling grouping in large flocks in early august this year. I know they do this in September & October but I don’t remember seeing them do this, this early in the year. I’m I wrong or is this early.

What are you noticing in your backyard? Do you know how to check the persimmon seeds? If not, be sure to check out this fun and informative video. Do you remember if you had any fogs in August?

Predicting the weather by natural clues is fun. It’s a great family activity too. Share what you observe at our forum and then check back in a few months to see if your natural forecasters panned out.

While we don’t use natural signs in our weather formula, we do recognize that they can be very accurate. Be sure to keep your eyes open for natural weather signs. Wooly worm caterpillars should be showing up soon to give you their forecast (remember more black than orange means a very harsh winter). Keep sharing your observations.

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natural weather signs, harsh winter weather, winter , folklore, signs from nature

by pgeiger
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It is so easy to criticize our government - at all levels. It was encouraging, though, to see how well coordinated the relief efforts were for Hurricane Gustav. Things went so well that major media had to replay Katrina footage to fill time. From the evacuation of two million plus, to the lack of looting and levees that held, it was a job well done. Congratulations to all the rescue workers.

While we did not specifically call for Gustav, our overall contention that July, August and September would be a very active tropical season with the Gulf Coast in the crosshairs for hurricanes was on the mark. We do call for a storm in mid September which is how Ike is tracking at this point. I am grateful for the advance warning system that is in place that allows people to react and save lives.

Our thoughts are with the millions that have to find their way back home and still have to contend with the balance of the hurricane season. The peak for hurricanes is September 10th.

We release a newsletter each Monday. This week it contains some great material including weather lore, favorite fall flowers, dinner in a flash and much more. If you have not signed up for the free newsletter, do so today at www.farmersalmanac.com.

by pgeiger
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Signs of Nature, Harsh Winter, Woollybear Caterpillars, Acorns

Ok, the Farmers’ Almanac prediction for a Numbingly Cold winter is out, but what are the real experts saying?  A wonderful friend of Ray Geiger, ( Cleveland weather guru - Dick Goddard) put together a laundry list of “signs” of nature. We featured these in the 1978 edition and it is still relevant today. here are the 20 Signs of A Hard Winter.

Thicker than normal corn husks
Woodpeckers sharing a tree
Early arrival of the Snowy owl
Early departure of geese and ducks
Early migration of the Monarch butterfly
Thick hair on the nape (back) of the cow’s neck
Heavy and numerous fogs during August
Raccoons with thick tails and bright bands
Mice eating ravenously into the home
Early arrival of crickets on the hearth
Spiders spinning larger than usual webs and entering the house in great numbers

Pigs gathering sticks
Insects marching a bee line rather than meandering
Early seclusion of bees within the hive
Unusual abundance of acorns
Muskrats burrowing holes high on the river hank
“See how high the hornet’s nest, ‘twill tell how high the snow will rest”
Narrow orange band in the middle of the Woollybear caterpillar warns of heavy snow; fat

and fuzzy caterpillars presage bitter cold
The squirrel gathers nuts early to fortify against a hard winter
Frequent halos or rings around sun or moon forecast numerous snow falls.

I have heard from several parts of North America about what folks are seeing. Example:

 Just reading on AOL that you predict a very harsh winter. We have lived on the Lake at Big Bear Lake, CA  for 10 years.  We are retired so we have time to watch the wildlife. This is the first year that we have had so many baby ducks that we can’t count them all.  They started hatching very early and are still hatching.  We have never seen so many.  Every mother it seems has from 4-9 little ducklings.  We have been wondering why so many. Thanks for your good work. - BJ.

So  what signs of nature are you observing?

by pgeiger
19 Comments »

A great deal of work goes on behind the scenes to pull together an edition of the Farmers’ Almanac. It is a mini-Olympics. For 9 months we work hard pulling together an array of material that address the overall theme of the Almanac - sustainable living. We have always been about being good to the earth and doing things in a way that allows us to live happy, frugal lives. We protect the formula that Caleb uses to calculate weather predictions two years in advance. It all comes down to the release of the newest edition.

One reader in Alberta comments, “I continue to go on your Internet site and check every thing out. I like your weather a lot. I find it is about 80-90 % right for each month. I have seen you guys forecast events in a month and sometimes they happen a few days off from what you predicted, (mother nature throws you off some times), but you still have very good weather. I can’t wait to see the winter 08-09 forecast next week, I hope it is good for Alberta.”

Like the Olympics, all of the hard work has led to the moment the Farmers’ Almanac lands in stores and the media talks about us. Expect to see coverage of our upcoming winter forecast in the papers, radio, TV and online starting Monday, August 25th. Sandi and I have met with the Associated Press and our website will be peppered with new material as well. For the next few months, we will be doing interviews throughout the US and Canada.

Be sure to get your copy of the 2009 Farmers’ Almanac and let me know what you like and how we can help you. If I am on a radio show in your community, call in and say hello. The fun begins next week and I hope our winter weather helps prepare you for what is coming your way.

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2009 Farmers’ Almanac, winter weather, winter 2009, Farmers’ Almanac

by pgeiger
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Wedding Weather, Buffalo, NY, Accuracy in Weather

Frequently, I am asked what the weather will be on a certain date for a wedding.  I try to “do my best” utilizing our long range weather predictions. Paul Leone is a producer for  FATV. His friends were to be married in Buffalo, NY, today. So months ago he asked and I cheerfully  reported that on August 8th it would be  ”partly sunny” weather - a perfect day. This morning, Paul called because the local weather folks called for rain all day. He was getting ribbed about our “accurate prediction”.  So, I put on my defensive face by saying did “you know that rain on a wedding is good for a bride. Rain equates to blessing and children.” So, I attempted to put a sunny spin on a rather dull day.

Fast forward  a few hours and I get an e-mail from Paul saying that miracle of miracles, it was clearing and going to be just wonderful for the event. As I write this blog, the ceremony is taking place and guess what…. the Farmers’ Almanac is right again. The current temperature is 78 degrees with 9 miles visibility, humidity is 43% and the sun is shining. Perfect day for a wedding!! Chalk one up for the good guys!

If you are planning a wedding or another event in 2009, the new edition will be in stores soon. Plan accordingly.

by pgeiger
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Thunderstorms, Weird Weather, Tornadoes

What a year for weird weather. From floods to hurricanes to tornadoes to hot and sultry temps, 2008  has had it all. While tornadoes are not unusual for the Midwest, for the first time in my memory, Androscoggin County in Maine had tornado alerts yesterday afternoon. This is so uncommon, that no one knew exactly what to do (unless they read the Farmers’ Almanac or spend time on our website). Up here, we plan for fire evacuations, ice storms and Nor’easters  but never tornadoes??.

The alert came and went and there were a few swaths of damage to trees and a couple homes, but nothing like we see in other parts of the country. Nonetheless, this has been a summer with power in its storms. And, it isn’t over yet. We are in the midst of hurricane season and while July has been referred to as Thunder Month, August heat and storms pack lots of clout.

In late August, we will release our predictions for fall and next winter…. so stay tuned. Have a safe and enjoyable weekend.

by pgeiger
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Lightning, Safety Tips, Fatalities, Storms

Here is an updated list of the lightning fatalities through June 21st. Based on 30-year averages, in the United States, about 1 person is killed by lightning every other day from now through the end of August. Sunday marked the start of Lightning Safety Awareness Week in the United States.

Here is a list and map of fatalities available on NOAA’s lightning Safety web site. While there will be a slight lag, especially over weekends, they try to keep the list as up to date as possible. A number of dangerous thunderstorms have hit New England this past weekend and they are common in most parts of the US. http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/fatalities.htm

How do you stay safe?? In 2006 a teenager was killed in Maine playing soccer. The sky was clear overhead but a stray bolt of lightning from a storm 10 miles away struck her. So, here are a couple links from our Farmers’ Almanac and FATV files. They discuss the severity of storms and ways to “play it safe”.

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/a/when-lightning-danger

http::/www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/a/lightning_kills_play_it_safe

by pgeiger
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Fujita Tornado Damage Scale, Winds, Tornado Season

My heart goes out to all the victims of tornadoes this Spring.  We indicated in our publication that it would be an active season, but tornadoes are among the most ferocious storms. They are somewhat arbitrary as to where they land and the damage they leave behind.

The storm that hit the Boy Scouts in Iowa captures all of our hearts. When we lose a young person, we lose their potential. Reading about the four boys makes us even sadder for what might have been. This was a Category 3 tornado which makes me wonder how powerful are tornadoes and what is the rating system. Here is the system as presented by NOAA

Fujita Tornado Damage Scale

Developed in 1971 by T. Theodore Fujita of the University of Chicago

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SCALE	WIND ESTIMATE *** (MPH)	TYPICAL DAMAGE
F0	< 73	Light damage. Some damage to chimneys; branches broken off trees; shallow-rooted trees pushed over; sign boards damaged.
F1	73-112	Moderate damage. Peels surface off roofs; mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned; moving autos blown off roads.
F2	113-157	Considerable damage. Roofs torn off frame houses; mobile homes demolished; boxcars overturned; large trees snapped or uprooted; light-object missiles generated; cars lifted off ground.
F3	158-206	Severe damage. Roofs and some walls torn off well-constructed houses; trains overturned; most trees in forest uprooted; heavy cars lifted off the ground and thrown.
F4	207-260	Devastating damage. Well-constructed houses leveled; structures with weak foundations blown away some distance; cars thrown and large missiles generated.
F5	261-318	Incredible damage. Strong frame houses leveled off foundations and swept away; automobile-sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 meters (109 yds); trees debarked; incredible phenomena will occur.

*** IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT F-SCALE WINDS: Do not use F-scale winds literally. These precise wind speed numbers are actually guesses and have never been scientifically verified. Different wind speeds may cause similar-looking damage from place to place — even from building to building. Without a thorough engineering analysis of tornado damage in any event, the actual wind speeds needed to cause that damage are unknown. The Enhanced F-scale will be implemented February 2007.

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by pgeiger
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Since the early 1900s, man has tried to control weather. When the Olympics roll around later this month, while billions of people will be watching athletes, I will be watching the weather. The Chinese Government intends to go where no man has gone before. The stadium that will host the opening ceremonies is “open air” and they do not want to be embarrassed by rain. In China the weather is the function of the China Meteorological Administration. I have read that China spends $100 million annually on a weather modification program. The are considered the world leader in such technology. It is reported that since 2000, they have created 250 billion tons of rain. At least this is what they report. Since the Olympics is big stuff and will involve planes, anti-aircraft guns and other weapons, their Navy is also involved.

If rain threatens opening or closing ceremonies, Beijing officials plan to set up rows of rocket launchers outside the city to seed any threatening clouds and cause them to rain before hitting the capital. Talk about staging an event. The plan is to protect the space over the stadium, so everything is perfect, even the weather.

So, my eyes will be on the weather later this summer. If this works, the Farmers’ Almanac might consider such weather control methods for the US.

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Olympics, Weather Controls

by pgeiger
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Hurricane Season, Tornadoes, Oil Prices, Hurricane Survival Tips

I don’t think there is anything more cruel than the randomness of a tornado. On page 107 of the 2008 we indicated that it would be an active tornado season. And, sadly this has been the case. But, June marks the start of another weather terror - Hurricane Season. It runs from June 1 through November 30th each year. September 10th is the peak of the season.

While tornadoes are arbitrary and cover small stretches of land, hurricanes are monster storms that are announced well in advance and impact multiple sections of the United States and Canada. I have started to receive calls about what the Farmers’ Almanac says about the upcoming Hurricane Season.

With 24/7 news and weather coverage, it sometimes appears that we are barraged with hurricanes. As soon as a depression forms off the African coast, it gets named and covered until it either hits land or disappears. This was the case of the weekend with “Arthur”. While we see hurricane activity we don’t believe 2008 will be a record setter. But there are at least three mentions of hurricanes in the 2008 Farmers’ Almanac. Here they are:

July 12 - 15th - Hurricane threat along the Gulf Coast

August 12 - 15 - Hurricane threat for the Gulf Coast and the Southeast

September 12 - 15th - Hurricane threat for the Gulf Coast with heavy rain spreading north and east

When the time comes it is good to be prepared. So, here is a link to Hurricane Survival Tips - www.farmersalmanac.com/hurricane-tips and for more general information about hurricanes, go to our special page titles All About Hurricanes .

On a personal note, the national media drives me “crazy”. June 1st one network carried a warning that it is Hurricane Season and just one major storm could disrupt the oil supply and drive prices higher. Since prices run on speculation, we really don’t need to scare people unless it is for ratings. Report the storms that are getting close to the US but let’s not torture folks in the process.

Our weather is posted online in two month clips and you can still obtain the 2008 edition on line at http://store.farmersalmanac.com/

by pgeiger
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