White Christmas: 10 Places That Almost Always Get Snow

Mistletoe. Eggnog. Fruitcake. The smell of fresh pine. These are quintessential Christmas traditions the holidays would not feel as festive without, and when it comes to Christmas Day weather, a snowy White Christmas tops the list. Whether you wake to one comes down to Old Man Winter, but a handful of towns barely leave it to chance. Below are 10 places in North America with the brightest historical odds of snow on December 25.

An official White Christmas means 1 inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. Most of us watch the weather maps around the clock in late December, hoping a winter storm swings nearby. But according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there are some places where a White Christmas is almost guaranteed, no blizzard or nor’easter needed.

How NOAA Maps the Odds of a White Christmas

To find these winter wonderlands, meteorologists looked back at Christmas snow events over the past 30 years. Their reasoning is plain: the more often a town has woken to snow on Christmas, the more likely it is to do so again. In 2021, NOAA updated the 30-year period behind its Christmas snow climatology map. It previously drew on 1981-2010, but now looks back at Christmases from 1991-2020.

Because of shifting weather trends in recent decades, the White Christmas map has changed too, shrinking slightly northward. Even so, many places still tend to see snow on the ground come December 25. You can read NOAA’s own breakdown on the National Centers for Environmental Information White Christmas page, then compare it against our long-range winter forecast for your region. The 10 towns below, spread across the United States and Canada, hold the brightest odds of a White Christmas, brighter than Rudolph’s nose.

10 Places Almost Guaranteed a White Christmas

Dreaming of a White Christmas? These cities and towns do not have to. Each one pairs cold air with a reliable snow source, whether that is high elevation, a nearby Great Lake, or sheer northern latitude.

Fairbanks, Alaska

Fairbanks receives a meager 11.4 inches of snowfall, on average, in December. But the city’s average December temperature of -6.8 degrees Fahrenheit (-21.5 Celsius) means whatever snow falls stays put. Case in point: Fairbanks has seen only one snowless Christmas (1934) since its weather records began in the early 1900s.

Mammoth Lakes, California

Perched at an elevation of nearly 8,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Mammoth Lakes is a marshmallow world all winter. Snow in the Mammoth area can arrive as early as October, so by the time Christmas comes the season is well underway. With over 45 inches of snowfall typical in December, there is likely snow on the ground more often than not.

Telluride, Colorado

For a town sitting so far south in the contiguous US, Telluride, Colorado has surprisingly high odds of a snowy Christmas, a 94% chance, to be exact. Credit its perch against the Southern Rockies’ San Juan Mountains, which wring snow out of passing storms and hold it on the ground.

Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth is not nicknamed the “Christmas City of the North” for nothing. Not only is there a 92% chance the northern Minnesota city enjoys an inch of Christmas snow in any given year, the odds it is blanketed with as much as 5 inches stand at nearly 60 percent.

Marquette, Michigan

Marquette sits downwind of Lake Superior in a region known as the Upper Peninsula snowbelt, which makes it one of the snowiest places in the US. On average it receives nearly 200 inches of snowfall each year, 40 inches of it in December. This lake-effect city has recorded snow on the ground every Christmas since record-keeping began, with only three exceptions: 1994, 2006, and 2015. With those odds, Marquette expects a White Christmas 96% of the time.

Lake Placid, New York

Thanks to the Great Lakes and the Adirondack Mountains, Upstate New York holds some of the best historical odds of a White Christmas in the nation. Lake Placid, for one, has seen at least an inch of snow on the ground for nearly nine of every ten Christmas mornings.

Caribou, Maine

With a name synonymous with reindeer and a reputation as one of America’s northernmost cities, it is only natural that Caribou makes our White Christmas list. Since weather records began there in 1939, a White Christmas has been observed 92% of the time. The city saw its deepest Christmas accumulation in 1989, when 2.5 feet of snow lay on the ground the morning of December 25.

Winnipeg, MB, Canada

The definition of a White Christmas shifts slightly for our Canadian readers, where at least 2 centimeters (0.8 inches) of snow must be present. The wish for one is every bit as popular with Canucks as with Americans. According to Environment Canada, Manitoba’s capital city of Winnipeg has seen only one snowless, or green, Christmas since 1955.

Goose Bay, NL, Canada

Nearly 30 inches of snow descends on Goose Bay every December, so the eastern Canadian city is very likely to see snow blanketing the ground on Christmas Day itself. In fact, Environment Canada reports that 98% of Christmases between 1955 and 2019 were white. Goose Bay’s 53% historical chance of a “perfect Christmas,” meaning snow on the ground and snowflakes in the air, is nothing to sneeze at either.

Prince George, BC, Canada

From 1955 to 2019, 91% of Christmases in Prince George were snow-covered, and not just by the bare minimum. In recent years the average Christmas morning snow depth has been 5.5 inches (14 cm), enough for a proper toboggan run before dinner.

White Christmas Odds by Region

The White Christmas map follows a few plain rules: cold, elevation, and a nearby water source that feeds snow. Latitude does most of the heavy lifting, but a mountain range or a Great Lake can hand a southern town northern odds. Here is how the pattern breaks down.

What Counts as a White Christmas

In the United States, the official bar is 1 inch or more of snow on the ground the morning of December 25. It does not have to be falling, it just has to be there when you look out the window. In Canada, the threshold is a touch lower: at least 2 centimeters, or 0.8 inches, on the ground. Forecasters sometimes go a step further and talk about a “perfect Christmas,” which means snow already on the ground and snowflakes in the air at the same time. Goose Bay pulls that off about 53% of the time.

One honest note before you pin your hopes on a map: these are historical odds, not a promise. NOAA’s 1991-2020 normals describe how often snow has been on the ground, and the map has crept northward as recent decades have warmed. A 92% town is still a coin flip in a stubborn year, so treat the numbers as a guide and keep an eye on the forecast as the day nears.

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White Christmas: Frequently Asked Questions

What counts as an official White Christmas?

In the United States, a White Christmas means at least 1 inch of snow on the ground the morning of December 25. The snow does not have to be falling, it just has to be there. In Canada the bar is 2 centimeters, or 0.8 inches, on the ground.

Which US city has the best odds of a White Christmas?

Fairbanks, Alaska. Its December average of -6.8 degrees Fahrenheit keeps snow on the ground, and the city has recorded only one snowless Christmas (1934) since its weather records began in the early 1900s. Marquette, Michigan runs a close second at 96%.

How does NOAA calculate White Christmas odds?

NOAA looks back at 30 years of Christmas snow records to estimate how often a town wakes to snow on December 25. In 2021 it updated the period from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020. The more often snow has been on the ground, the higher the odds it happens again.

Where in Canada is a White Christmas almost guaranteed?

Winnipeg, Manitoba has seen just one green Christmas since 1955, and Goose Bay, Newfoundland and Labrador ran 98% white from 1955 to 2019. Prince George, British Columbia was snow-covered 91% of the time over the same span, with an average Christmas snow depth of 5.5 inches.

Is climate change making White Christmases less likely?

The historical odds have slipped in places. NOAA’s White Christmas map has shrunk slightly northward as recent decades have warmed, which is one reason the agency moved its normals to the 1991-2020 period. High, cold, and far-north towns like Fairbanks still hold near-certain odds, while marginal southern spots see snow less often than they once did.

Will it snow where I live this Christmas?

Historical odds tell you what usually happens, not what will happen this year. Even a 92% town can turn up bare in a stubborn season. Check the Farmers’ Almanac long-range forecast and our Christmas weather forecast as December 25 nears, then plan the day accordingly.