November Weather Lore: 14 Sayings From the Archives
The month of November is very much known as a transition month, as fall blends into winter. Leaves have left the trees and nature prepares for cold. Did our ancestors watch for signs this month?
Quick Reference
- What November lore is about: the transition from autumn to winter. The signs of a hard winter ahead, the first ice, the late harvest.
- Most-cited sayings: “If there be ice in November that will bear a duck, there will be nothing thereafter but sleet and muck.” “As November, so the following March.” “Thunder in November indicates a fertile year to come.”
- Key saint days: St. Martin’s Day (November 11), St. Catherine’s Day (November 25), the late November transition window.
- The hard-winter signs: rabbits unusually fat in late October and November, leaves still on trees past Martinmas, geese standing on ice on St. Martin’s Day.
- How accurate is it? The pattern-based sayings (warm November / mild March correlation) have weak climate-science support. The saint-day specifics are folklore-grade, useful as date markers more than as forecasts.
November is the month most farmers and weather-watchers used to read what the winter was going to look like. The leaves have come down, the ice is forming on the ponds, the geese are passing overhead, and a few cold-weather signs that have not appeared by Thanksgiving start to feel ominous. Centuries of European and American agricultural folklore produced a dense body of November weather sayings, most tied to specific saint days or to the transition from autumn to winter. Some of them have weak but real climate-science backing. Others are pure folklore. Here are 14 November weather sayings from the Farmers’ Almanac archive, organized into the ones worth knowing.
General November Weather Sayings
The most-cited general November sayings, collected across English and American farm almanacs:
- “If there be ice in November that will bear a duck, there will be nothing thereafter but sleet and muck.” The premise: an early hard freeze in November is followed by an oddly mild and wet rest of the winter, with sleet and slush replacing snow and clean cold. The saying captures a real seasonal pattern: very early hard freezes often signal an unusual atmospheric setup that may produce a milder mid-winter.
- “As November, so the following March.” Same premise as the September-March mirror saying: the November weather predicts the March pattern. Weak climate correlation, useful as one signal among several.
- “Thunder in November indicates a fertile year to come.” November thunder is unusual; when it does occur, it often comes from atmospheric setups that produce above-normal late-fall and winter precipitation, which benefits the next year’s crop. The saying captures a real pattern.
- “If we don’t get our Indian summer in October or November, we will get it in winter.” The premise: warm late-fall weather follows a fixed annual budget; if it does not arrive on time, it will arrive later. Folklore-grade. Indian summer is variable enough that the prediction is hard to test rigorously.
- “Flowers in bloom late in autumn indicate a bad winter.” Sometimes called “Indian summer flowers.” Some plants do bloom late in unusually warm autumns, and the late warmth can signal an atmospheric setup that produces cold winter swings. Weak but consistent signal.
- “November, take flail; let ships no more sail.” An old maritime and farming proverb. November is the time to thresh grain (the flail) and pull boats out of the water before winter storms make sailing dangerous. Less a forecast than a calendar reminder.
- “Barred owls (or hoot owls) calling late into the fall signal a rough winter.” Owls can call year-round, but unusually persistent late-fall calling is sometimes read as a sign of a hard winter ahead. Folklore-grade with limited scientific backing.
- “In cold, long winters, rabbits are fat in October and November; in mild and pleasant winters, they are poor in those months.” A weather-prediction read on rabbit body condition. Some basis: rabbits feeding heavily in late fall often correlates with abundant fall mast crop years (acorns, beech nuts, early-fallen apples), which themselves often correlate with hard-winter setups.
Saint-Day Forecasts
Several November dates carry their own forecast lore, inherited from European Catholic tradition. The two most-cited:
- St. Martin’s Day (November 11): the major fall-to-winter transition date in European folk calendars. Several sayings cluster here:
- “If St. Martin’s Day is fair, dry, and cold, the cold in winter will not last long.” A mild-winter signal from a clear St. Martin’s.
- “If the geese on St. Martin’s Day stand on ice, they will walk in mud on Christmas.” An inversion saying: cold St. Martin’s = mild Christmas.
- “If the leaves of the trees and grapevines do not fall before St. Martin’s Day, a cold winter may be expected.” Late leaf-drop reads as a hard-winter signal.
- St. Catherine’s Day (November 25): “As St. Catherine, foul or fair, so will be the next February.” A late-November to mid-February correlation.
- November 21: “As November 21st, so the winter.” A specific-date forecast for the entire season ahead.
The saint-day November sayings were anchor points in European agricultural calendars. St. Martin’s Day, in particular, marked the traditional date of the autumn cattle-slaughter, the start of the cold-storage season, and the formal beginning of winter. The festival of Martinmas (still observed in parts of Germany, Belgium, and Switzerland) involves bonfires and lantern processions, marking the transition into the dark half of the year.
The Hard-Winter Signs
November is the prime month for reading the hard-winter signs that the natural world produces. Several signals worth watching:
- Heavy mast crop: abundant acorns, beech nuts, and other tree-seed production in October and November is folklore for a hard winter ahead. The biological logic: trees in stressful conditions sometimes produce extra seed as a hedge against a difficult next year. The signal is weak but consistent.
- Thick rabbit fur and fat rabbits: rabbits putting on extra weight and fur in late October and November are folklore for a hard winter. Modern wildlife biology confirms that rabbits respond to environmental cues (day length, temperature, food availability) when developing winter coats; the question is whether those cues correlate reliably with the actual winter ahead.
- Geese flying south unusually early: if the geese pass through your latitude in early November when they normally pass in late November, the migration is responding to colder conditions to the north. Often a hard-winter signal.
- Squirrels building nests low in trees: squirrels reading wind exposure may build nests in lower, more sheltered branches when expecting harsh winter conditions. Folklore signal with some biological basis.
- Persistent leaves on oaks and maples: trees that hold their leaves late into November sometimes produce that delay because of an unusual fall pattern that signals a colder, snowier winter ahead. The signal is weak but cited often in old-timer winter forecasts.
- Heavy onion-skin formation: “thick onion skins, hard winter; thin onion skins, mild winter.” The onion-skin reading is part of the broader November garden lore.
None of these signs is a forecast on its own. Two or three pointing the same direction is the kind of layered signal that old-time farmers read seriously alongside their own calendar memory of past winters. Modern climate scientists are skeptical of the individual signs but generally accept that some of the underlying ecological cues do correlate weakly with seasonal weather patterns.
Why November Has Less Lore Than September
The Farmers’ Almanac archive holds noticeably fewer November sayings than September sayings. The reason is partly practical: by November, most of the year’s outdoor work is done, the harvest is in, and the weather forecast becomes less directly actionable for farmers. September’s lore had to support harvest decisions; November’s lore is more about long-range winter prediction.
The November sayings that did survive tend to be the ones with the clearest practical value: the hard-winter signals (so the farmer knows whether to lay in extra firewood, salt down extra beef, and fortify the barn), the saint-day calendar markers (so the farmer knows when to slaughter, when to thresh, when to pull the boat), and the regional inversion patterns (warm November / mild March, cold St. Martin’s / mild Christmas) that helped manage expectations for the next several months. The pure-poetry sayings of summer largely fell out of the November record because they were less useful.
How to Use November Lore Today
For modern readers, November weather lore is most useful as one input alongside the long-range forecast and your own regional knowledge. Practical applications:
- Watch the St. Martin’s Day weather (November 11). Cold and dry St. Martin’s is a folk signal of mild winter; warm and wet St. Martin’s is a signal of harder winter ahead. Weak signal, useful as one input.
- Note the leaf-drop date. Leaves still on trees past November 11 in your area is a folk signal of harder winter. Modern climate science is skeptical, but the signal is consistent enough across decades to be worth noting.
- Watch wildlife body condition. Fat rabbits, thick fur on deer and coyotes, heavy mast crops on oaks: all real ecological signals that may weakly correlate with winter severity.
- Track the late-November transition. The week of Thanksgiving to St. Catherine’s Day (November 25) is a key transition window in most of the temperate U.S. The pattern in this week often sets the tone for early winter.
- Pair with the long-range forecast. Folk signals plus seasonal forecasting plus your own regional memory is the strongest combined signal available.
For the corresponding lore of other months, see September weather lore and April weather lore. For the broader animal-and-folklore tradition that produces many of these signs, see animal weather folklore. For an authoritative cross-reference on weather folklore traditions, the Old Farmer’s Almanac weather folklore reference covers many of the same sayings with regional variations.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is November weather lore actually accurate?
The pattern-based sayings (warm November / mild March, hard-winter ecological signals) have weak but measurable climate and biological backing. The saint-day specifics are folklore. Use the lore as a layered local signal, not a forecast.
What is St. Martin’s Day?
November 11, the feast of St. Martin of Tours. In medieval European calendars, Martinmas marked the traditional autumn cattle-slaughter, the start of cold storage, and the formal beginning of winter. Several November weather sayings cluster around this date.
Do hard-winter signs really work?
The individual signs (heavy mast crop, thick rabbit fur, late leaf drop) have weak but real biological basis. The animals and trees are responding to environmental cues that may correlate weakly with the season ahead. Two or three signs pointing the same direction is the kind of layered signal worth noting.
Why does November have less weather lore than September?
Most outdoor agricultural work is done by November, so the lore was less directly actionable. The November sayings that survived are the ones with practical value: hard-winter signals for prep, calendar markers for slaughter and storage, and regional inversion patterns that managed winter expectations.
What does Indian summer have to do with November lore?
Indian summer (a stretch of warm dry weather in late October or early November after the first hard frost) is part of the November transitional pattern. Folklore says if Indian summer doesn’t arrive in October or November, it will arrive later, sometimes in mid-winter as a January thaw.
What does “if there be ice in November that will bear a duck” mean?
An early November hard freeze (ice strong enough to support a duck) is folklore for a milder, sleetier rest of winter. The basis: very early hard freezes often signal an unusual atmospheric setup that may not sustain through the full season.
When is the November weather lore peak transition window?
The week of Thanksgiving (late November) to St. Catherine’s Day (November 25) is the key transition window in most of the temperate U.S. The pattern in this week often sets the tone for early winter and lines up with several traditional saint-day forecasts.
This article was published by the Staff at FarmersAlmanac.com. Any questions? Contact us at questions@farmersalmananac.com.
- Farmers' Almanac Staff
- Farmers' Almanac Staff
- Farmers' Almanac Staff
- Farmers' Almanac Staff
I love weather folklore! I use to use it when teaching a weather unit to third graders. We’d track and see if the prediction came true or not.