June 1 marks the official beginning of hurricane season. What will this year’s hurricane season bring? Here’s what Farmers’ Almanac long range forecaster Caleb Weatherbee had to say on the subject:
“Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phil Klotzbach, well known for the accuracy of their long-range hurricane predictions, have said early season predictors for 2009 are indicating fewer storms then last year. Their best guess indicates we could see 12 named storms this year, including six hurricanes, two of which are likely to be major hurricanes.
Part of their prediction involves finding past years when weather and ocean patterns were similar to what they see this spring (called an “analog”). One of those analog years was 1985. That, as you may recall, was the year the Northeast US had their last big hurricane hit from ‘Gloria.’”
That prediction corresponds pretty well with what Caleb, himself, said in the 2009 Farmers’ Almanac. For the U.S. Southeast, the Almanac is calling for three hurricane threats — one in early August, and two in early to mid-September. This year’s Farmers’ Almanac also warns of a mid-August hurricane threat for Northeastern states.
Though Northern Atlantic “hurricane season” technically runs from the beginning of June until the end of November — six full months in total — hurricane activity is usually most pronounced during the period from August through September, with September 10 as the peak period, most years. The Farmers’ Almanac expects this year’s hurricane season to follow that pattern, so residents of the Atlantic seaboard should have a couple more months to relax before they need to worry about tropical storms.