Here we are, at the tail end of July, now well in the thick of the famed Dog Days of Summer. Now seems as good a time as any to check in with our summer forecast, and see how our predictions are squaring with reality. So here’s a look at what we said the weather would be in the various regions, and what Mother Nature has done so far:
Northeastern States — In New England, we predicted that conditions would be “hot and very wet.” We got the hot part of the equation right, and the earlier part of this summer was very wet, raising rivers and lakes to very high levels. As the summer has gone on, precipitation has leveled out closer to normal levels. In the Mid-Atlantic States, we said it would be “hot and wet.” These states have been prey to the heat wave that has taken hold across much of the nation. Precipitation was normal through June, but has been below average since the beginning of July. Given that, our predictions were right-on for New England and correct in terms of heat for the Mid-Atlantic, but off in terms of precipitation.
Southeastern States — We said the Southeastern seaboard would be “hot and wet.” As with their neighbors to the north, temperatures have been hot, though rainfall has been somewhat below average. In Florida, there has been a hint of the drought conditions that have taken hold farther to the west, though not to the same degree. Again, we called the temperatures correctly, but were slightly off on the precipitation.
Great Lakes and Midwest — We said these states would be “very warm with average rainfall,” and this was spot-on. Temperatures in these states have been hotter than normal, though not as hot as states farther to the south, while precipitation levels have been about average.
South Central — We said the area including Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas, and Oklahoma would be “hot with average rainfall.” Again, our prediction for extreme heat proved to be correct, but we were wrong in our prediction of “average precipitation.” These states have been enduring the worst drought in a generation for most of the summer, with crops shriveling in the fields.
Southwestern States — For Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado, we predicted “nice temps and very wet.” This region is typically very hot and dry, and this summer has been no different. Temperatures in this area have fallen slightly below average in these states, though the precipitation we predicted did not come through. These states have not been hit as hard as Texas or Oklahoma, but their precipitation levels are a far cry from the “very wet” conditions we forecast. In California, we predicted “nice temps and average rainfall,” and that was correct. After several dry years, the Golden Sate has finally caught a break this summer with a season of temperate, pleasant weather.
Pacific Northwest — We said Washington, Oregon, and Idaho would be “cool with average rainfall,” and that was correct. As the rest of the nation tries not to melt, our readers in the Northwest have been writing to ask if we could send some of this heat their way. Normally a very temperate region with comfortable summers, these states have been downright chilly this year.
Overall, our temperature predictions have been pretty accurate. We foresaw the heat wave that has taken hold this summer, and predicted that the West Coast would escape the worst of it. However, our forecast has been off, so far, when it comes to precipitation. Conditions across much of the country have been drier than predicted. Regions we said would be “very wet” have been close to average, those we thought would be “wet” are seeing slightly below average amounts of precipitation, while those we said would be average are experiencing drought conditions.
However, we would like to remind everyone that there are still almost two months left of summer, so the rain may still fall.