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Checking In On Our Summer Forecast

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summer-forecast-recapSo far, our summer long-range forecast has not been too far off the mark. Looking at the forecast we made for the Western US, the key word was “dry” and unfortunately that has been the big story as drought conditions have persisted, especially in California.

In contrast, precipitation in the East has been near to above normal.  This has been true especially in the Northeast US where, predominately, the form of moisture has been showers and scattered thunderstorms. And while it has not been a typical summer in terms of heat, humidity levels have more than made up for that, all agreeing quite well with our “Humid, Wet & Thundery” outlook.

The one big thing that we failed to adequately account for is the unusually persistent flow of cooler-than-normal air flowing down from Canada and through the central part of the nation.  Summer temperatures have been atypical in the Northeast, averaging well below normal.

Our two best forecasts so far have been the forecast of a tropical storm threat along the Atlantic Seaboard as June came to a close (“Arthur” ultimately formed and brought unsettled weather to parts of the East as July began), and the mention of a “Canadian outbreak (bringing) an unseasonable chill” into the North Central states, coinciding with Major League Baseball’s All Star Game in Minneapolis.  At game time, for the “great summer pastime,” temperatures hovered in the 60s.

(Continued Below)

As for the rest of summer, it appears that more unseasonably cool outbreaks from Canada may again invade the Central US.  September sees the peak of tropical activity and we’ll be keeping our eyes out for the Eastern Seaboard where our forecast suggest a couple of possible tropical threats. Time will tell.

A reminder that summer was officially half over last Thursday, August 7, at 2:40 a.m. EDT.

Whatever the weather, we hope you all have a great second half of summer!

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3 Calvin Payne { 09.08.15 at 5:35 pm }

here in Carlsbad New Mexico has been very hot and more humid than before, we seam like we are back in Arizona where temps are around 100 to 110, but we have had more rain and our state is starting to look green again. Our drought is almost over but could use a little more rain just in case.

4 Connie Warta { 08.28.14 at 12:43 am }

My son & soon yo be daughter-law are getting married on Oct. 11, 2014 in Lyons, Ks. They are having an outside wedding & was wondering what the weather was going to be like. Are they predicicting rain either on the 10 or 11th. They are kind of getting nervous!! I didn’t know how to check it.

5 BARBARA { 08.19.14 at 1:43 pm }

I thought you were on the mark for Colorado’s front range. More rain than usual. Love it..and the trees are doing beautifully this year. BUT we planted our garden according to your plant dates and the tomatoes are slow to ripen this year. Disappointing. Green beans are awesome though. It’s been cooler than usual as well. Love that too.

6 Mark H { 08.17.14 at 2:01 pm }

Agree with Mary Black

7 Tom { 08.16.14 at 4:14 pm }

I hope the winter in the north east is not as cold and snowy as last year! Any predictions on the severity this winter?

8 Gail { 08.16.14 at 10:19 am }

Maryland weather seems to be on target. The cooler weather these past weeks have been delightful – unfortunately, it has not been conducive in the desire of getting in the pool! As we sit out on the deck, the atmosphere seems to have a fall like quality and it is only 16 Aug! I’m suspicious…I fear that Sep & Oct might make up for the present cool trend and be extremely warm/hot…. we’ll see.

9 Cathy { 08.15.14 at 8:43 am }

I believe the prediction for us here in Phoenix was dry and hot. However, it has been very wet and temperatures have been lower than I have seen in years. Not that I am complaining. The Monsoon season has been very good to us with lots of rain storms and cloud cover keeping the temps in the low 100’s and below. Normally August is 112 – 115 every day. I am truly grateful you were wrong for us this year.

10 { 08.15.14 at 6:08 am }

Missed the mark as of late for the Pacific Northwest. “Cool and dry”?? Hardly! Try record-setting rainfall totals and thunderstorms!

11 The Lowe Down { 08.15.14 at 2:02 am }

Farmers’ Almanac has been mostly right for as long as I’ve been following it. I don’t plan any trips until I’ve checked the Almanac. I don’t know how you do it, but just keep DOING IT! I don’t bother to watch local weather because they make all kinds of predictions and then it turns out FA is mostly right anyway. Farmers’ Almanac and looking out the window works just fine for me. Thanks FA!

12 Barbara Rinehart { 08.14.14 at 6:45 pm }

Enjoy all your … mostly accurate… predictions. In East Texas… we have been so very blessed with cooler temps than ever remembered. In the 60s some nights and some days, a couple of weeks ago, barely in the 80s…. We are lovin it… wonder what we will have this winter… <3

13 Margaret Pepper { 08.14.14 at 1:33 pm }

Well it’s August 14th and I live in Southern Ontario and right now I’m wearing jeans and a sweater!!!! It has been a fairly cool and moist summer for us. Great for the flowers, not great for a tan 🙂

14 Mary { 08.13.14 at 10:58 pm }

We live in Southern California up in the highdesert. You were really “on spot” with your forecast for all of us up here. Thank You

15 Marianne Herrmann { 08.13.14 at 6:39 pm }

You were extremely accurate. I knew we only had a few days of vacation available so I looked up your forecast for August 4,5,6,and 7th and it was clear and sunny. That is when I booked rooms at Congress Hall in Cape May. The only thing different was you said it would be cool and it was hot! No worries, though, we were at the beach! Great job!

16 Mary Black { 08.13.14 at 6:39 pm }

It appears you are now taking side with those who are modifying the weather. The weather we are getting is not normal; it is all due to weather modification. Almost everyday there are chemtrails in the sky. It seems as if gone are the days when I use to wake up to a blue sky with white clouds, now I woke to a grayish sky because man is trying to control the weather and in the process is causing harm to life on earth. I hope your predication is not based on HAARP actions.

17 jan williams { 08.13.14 at 6:13 pm }

Has been perfect summer here in SW Mo. A little dry now but pleasant temps.

18 TLM { 08.13.14 at 6:01 pm }

Central Idaho has been hot and dry this summer. July average high was 91 degrees – which is hot for us up in the mountains at 4800′. Very little precip (.19″ for the whole month.) August started out hot and humid, getting a tiny bit of rain from moonsoons coming up from the south desert. Lots of lightning this month, lots of forest and range fires.

19 Honeylisa { 08.13.14 at 4:16 pm }

I live in the California Foothills and it has been so very dry. We are on well water so we are always aware of our water usage, so far so good for this summer, but praying for an extremely wet winter. We’ve lost several of the young trees we planted a couple of years ago, but we will replace them. As Shelley previously mentioned, there have been several fires up here and we are always on watch, especially with the dry lightning we have had. I just sent for my 2015 Farmers’ Almanac, hoping for a good forecast for the winter. Maybe I can have a garden of some sort next year!

20 Shelley Mellon { 08.13.14 at 3:54 pm }

Foothills near Yosemite are so very dry and fires have ravaged so much of our beautiful area. Couldn’t justify planting veggies this year considering the demands on our well. Depending on local farmers markets. Keeping the fruit trees alive, though not thriving. Lord, please send rain to heal your land.

21 Gloria K { 08.13.14 at 2:39 pm }

Here in New Brunswick, Canada, we’ve had a great summer! Hot and sunny but with a grand amout of humidity. Air conditioner had to run constantly but remembering the very cold winter we just passed through I’m not complaining! With the new moon, the weather has cooled down now but we’re still getting the humidity to some degree. Great summer tho…wish it would go on until December…lol

22 Lorraine Measor { 08.13.14 at 2:09 pm }

I don ‘t know about anyone else but the weather here in Northern Ontario Canada has been crappy. July was cloudy and cool and gardening was the pits! Now I hear winter will be somewhat like last winter…VERY COLD!!

23 Mark Ravenhorst { 08.13.14 at 1:27 pm }

Judy!! Congrats on the new motorcycle and hope you get the weather you want.. GOD is good!! Ride safe!! I’m in Mississippi here and had a good ride over to Natchez, MS last weekend.. but the ride home was WET!!! Didn’t matter though broke out the rain suit and rode on… I know… this doesn’t pertain to much as far as the Almanac, but I love anyone that rides.. haha… “IF YOU DON’T RIDE YOU DON’T KNOW”
OH BTW.. my tomatoes got the blight also here in Mississippi… but they were good up until then.

24 Suzie { 08.13.14 at 12:27 pm }

I don’t think the summer here the northeast was so nice,we may have had a few hot and humid days,and not great for swimming either. This is great weather for sitting out and enjoying the mild temps. Or going for a stroll in the evening.

25 CHARLIEINSEQUIM,WA { 08.13.14 at 12:23 pm }

Just like your prediction, warm and dry here on the Olympic Pennsulia in Sequim, Wa.

26 BrodiesMom { 08.13.14 at 11:34 am }

my tomatoes got late blight, too (fried green tomatoes took care of that) . But I had a bumper crop of cucumbers (made lots of pickles) and burgundy green beans this year : )

27 Trish { 08.13.14 at 11:25 am }

As you stated, very accurate for us here in Southern California. Boo

28 Judy { 08.13.14 at 11:02 am }

Pretty accurate in western Colorado. We have had a couple of unusual rains.

29 Shawn { 08.13.14 at 11:00 am }

We are in the Northeast and it’s been wet most of the summer, and seems to not coming to an end!

30 thelma bice { 08.13.14 at 10:30 am }

This summer has been very kind to my A/C bill.

31 ahrgees { 08.13.14 at 10:23 am }

Not so humid as usual, here in mid eastern Connecticut, definitely cooler, no brown lawn this year… makes me wonder about the coming winter

32 Leslie Edwards Humez { 08.13.14 at 9:52 am }

Ohio-on-the-lake has had ample and welcome precipitation: no brown lawns here. Regular rain seems to keep the humidity higher than expected. But the temps are really irregularly cool, and there has been no need this year to install our room air-conditioner.

33 Crystal { 08.13.14 at 9:29 am }

Yup it was right on for Northern NY, very humid this year.

34 Jo Elder { 08.13.14 at 9:15 am }

Haven’t needed my window air-conditioner. Wondering what winter will be like. Hope not like last.

35 RuRu { 08.13.14 at 9:08 am }

Virginia was dry until we got over 3″ at my house from Friday 8/8 until yesterday. Now the leaves are falling off my bean and tomato plants. Bummer! Really appreciate the rain though.
May as well close the pool as you guys are predicting much cooler weather for Labor Day weekend. 60 degrees isn’t inviting.

36 Kay card { 08.13.14 at 9:07 am }

Parts of the Colorado mountains turned Into “tropical rain forests” this year…..also not in your forecast. Extreme weather all over the state was the norm this year.

37 Robin { 08.13.14 at 9:00 am }

Your prediction stated “oppressively humid” for the Northeast. Fortunately, that didn’t happen!

38 crystal { 08.13.14 at 8:59 am }

Michigan-Tomatoes were good until blight set in.

39 Judy Marino { 08.13.14 at 8:56 am }

Dear God & Farmer’s Almanac …. Please let us have pleasant dry weather thru Nov 10. I just bought a new motorcycle & want to get MORE riding in!!

40 Rob Osborne { 08.12.14 at 8:21 am }

tomatoes were plenty….. until blight!

41 Rob Osborne { 08.12.14 at 8:19 am }

Yes, please note that, In Kentucky…. tomatoes have been at their best this year, except for late blight……..

42 Rob Osborne { 08.12.14 at 8:17 am }

In Kentucky…. tomatoes have been at their best this year, except for late blight……..

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