So far, our summer long-range forecast has not been too far off the mark. Looking at the forecast we made for the Western US, the key word was “dry” and unfortunately that has been the big story as drought conditions have persisted, especially in California.
In contrast, precipitation in the East has been near to above normal. This has been true especially in the Northeast US where, predominately, the form of moisture has been showers and scattered thunderstorms. And while it has not been a typical summer in terms of heat, humidity levels have more than made up for that, all agreeing quite well with our “Humid, Wet & Thundery” outlook.
The one big thing that we failed to adequately account for is the unusually persistent flow of cooler-than-normal air flowing down from Canada and through the central part of the nation. Summer temperatures have been atypical in the Northeast, averaging well below normal.
Our two best forecasts so far have been the forecast of a tropical storm threat along the Atlantic Seaboard as June came to a close (“Arthur” ultimately formed and brought unsettled weather to parts of the East as July began), and the mention of a “Canadian outbreak (bringing) an unseasonable chill” into the North Central states, coinciding with Major League Baseball’s All Star Game in Minneapolis. At game time, for the “great summer pastime,” temperatures hovered in the 60s.
As for the rest of summer, it appears that more unseasonably cool outbreaks from Canada may again invade the Central US. September sees the peak of tropical activity and we’ll be keeping our eyes out for the Eastern Seaboard where our forecast suggest a couple of possible tropical threats. Time will tell.
A reminder that summer was officially half over last Thursday, August 7, at 2:40 a.m. EDT.
Whatever the weather, we hope you all have a great second half of summer!