Texas & South Central Thanksgiving Weather Forecast 2026

Sweater weather or a seat on the patio? Here’s the early holiday outlook for Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and New Mexico.

From a backyard turkey fry to a family gathering around the fireplace, Thanksgiving plans often start with a familiar question: What will the weather bring?

The South Central Thanksgiving weather forecast for 2026 points to mostly seasonable conditions, with cooler weather inland and colder conditions possible in western or higher-terrain areas. Farmers’ Almanac’s national Thanksgiving outlook covers November 23–26, including Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, November 26, 2026. Plan Your Day. Grow Your Life.

Which States Are in the South Central Forecast?

Farmers’ Almanac’s South Central forecast region includes Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. Plan Your Day. Grow Your Life.

Heading to Dallas for dinner, visiting relatives in Little Rock, or gathering in Santa Fe? Bookmark our South Central long-range weather forecast as you work out the details of your trip.

Will Thanksgiving Be Cold in the South Central U.S.?

The regional outlook favors temperatures typical of the season overall, with a cooler inland emphasis and the possibility of colder weather toward the west and at higher elevations. It does not provide individual city temperatures. Plan Your Day. Grow Your Life.

For packing, think in layers: something comfortable for a busy kitchen, a sweater for visiting on the porch, and an outer layer suited to your destination. Check the morning forecast separately if your Thanksgiving begins with a turkey trot or an early drive.

Will It Rain or Snow on Thanksgiving?

The published South Central summary does not specify a regional rain or snow signal for November 23–26. That leaves precipitation details unresolved; a seasonable temperature outlook alone cannot settle the umbrella question. Plan Your Day. Grow Your Life.

Before committing to outdoor cooking or a backyard football game, check local precipitation chances and timing. For a trip into higher terrain, review the forecast for your actual lodging and route.

Can You Plan Thanksgiving Dinner Outdoors?

If your holiday table tends to overflow into the yard, keep that option open while you plan. Set aside a sheltered gathering space and decide how you would move everyone indoors if needed.

A few days before Thanksgiving, check temperature, wind, and precipitation for the hours you intend to serve. A forecast for an afternoon meal may be less useful for guests lingering over dessert after dark.

Driving Across the Region for Thanksgiving?

Build your weather check around the journey. Look up your departure point, overnight stops, and destination, especially if the drive crosses several states or includes higher terrain.

Use the National Weather Service for local forecasts and alerts, and check state transportation reports before leaving. Keep an extra layer handy so a roadside stop does not mean unpacking the trunk.

What About Black Friday and Thanksgiving Weekend?

This outlook ends on Thanksgiving Day. Plans for November 27–29, including shopping, football outings, and the drive home, require a separate forecast check. Plan Your Day. Grow Your Life.

South Central Thanksgiving Weather FAQs

When is Thanksgiving in 2026?

Thanksgiving falls on Thursday, November 26. Plan Your Day. Grow Your Life.

Does this outlook include New Mexico?

Yes. New Mexico belongs to Farmers’ Almanac’s South Central forecast region. Plan Your Day. Grow Your Life.

Where can I find more weather guidance?

Visit our South Central long-range weather forecast for regional guidance, then check local forecasts as the holiday approaches.

Where will you spend Thanksgiving this year—and does your family hope for patio weather or a cozy day indoors? Tell us your state and holiday plans in the comments!