Fall officially begins on September 22, 2026, with the arrival of the fall equinox. And this year, autumn looks ready to live up to its reputation as a season of change.
Dramatic Drench
Fall 2026 is shaping up to be a season of dramatic transitions across the United States. The season will begin with widespread warmth in September before a cooling trend takes hold, gradually sweeping from north to south as autumn progresses.
By November, most regions can expect noticeably cooler temperatures, while rain and storm systems become increasingly common. In other words, Fall 2026 looks to make a pronounced shift from warm and relatively dry weather to cooler, wetter conditions—especially across the northern half of the country.
September 2026
September starts fall on the warm side for much of the nation. Summer-like temperatures will linger across a broad portion of the country, with some regions also enjoying extended stretches of dry or fair weather.
The Northeast should see periods of pleasant weather during September, while the Southwest and much of the West remain relatively dry. The North Central states may also experience several dry spells early in the season.
But the quiet pattern won’t last everywhere. As September progresses, the first signs of a seasonal change will begin to appear across the northern states, setting the stage for a much cooler October.
See your state’s peak fall foliage dates
October 2026
October is when the transition to true fall weather becomes much more noticeable.
The North Central states and Great Lakes region will lead the charge into colder, more winter-like conditions, experiencing some of the earliest and most persistent chilly weather of the season. By mid-October, these areas could even see the first hints of winter, with some snow possible in higher elevations.
The Southwest, meanwhile, starts the season with its characteristic heat but should undergo a significant change during October as temperatures drop.
Farther south and east, the Southeast will hang on to summer-like warmth longer than most other regions, making for a slower transition into cooler fall weather.
November 2026
By November, cooler temperatures should become established across most of the country, including areas of the South that remained warm earlier in the season.
Precipitation will also become a much bigger part of the weather story. Rain and storm systems are expected to become more frequent and widespread as Thanksgiving approaches, producing a notably wetter pattern across much of the United States.
Northern areas will experience the most dramatic seasonal change, shifting from the relatively warm and dry conditions of early fall toward a colder, wetter—and increasingly winter-like—pattern.
Coldest Conditions
The North Central states and Great Lakes region are expected to experience the earliest and most persistent cold weather this fall. The first winter-like conditions could arrive by mid-October, with the chill becoming more established as November approaches.
The Northwest is also forecast to trend cold and relatively dry.
In contrast, the Southeast will remain warm the longest, with its more substantial cool-down holding off until November. Much of the West and Southwest should also begin the season warm before temperatures fall more noticeably during October.
Rain and Snow
Fall 2026 increasingly becomes a wet fall for much of the country as the season progresses.
The regional outlook calls for:
- Northwest: Cold and dry
- West and Southwest: Warm with below-average rainfall
- North Central: Cold and wet
- Great Lakes and surrounding areas: Cold and rainy
- Northeast: Cool and wet
- South Central: Warm and wet
- Southeast: Warm and stormy
The Southwest should be relatively dry early in the season, while the Northeast gets some extended stretches of fair September weather. However, those patterns are not expected to last.
By Thanksgiving, a notably wetter pattern should develop across most regions, with storm systems becoming more frequent and widespread.
As for snow, the first opportunities arrive in the colder northern regions. Some higher elevations in the North Central and Great Lakes areas could see snow by mid-October, with increasingly winter-like weather as the season advances.
So whether you’re planning a fall foliage trip, getting ready for Halloween, or traveling for Thanksgiving, Fall 2026 promises plenty of changes. Warm September days will gradually give way to a much cooler and wetter finish to the season.
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Halloween Weather Forecast 2026
Halloween is on Friday, October 31, 2026. Here’s our forecast for October 28-31 in the US and Canada:
Fall 2026 increasingly becomes a wet fall for much of the country as the season progresses.
The regional outlook calls for:
- Northwest: Cold and dry
- West and Southwest: Warm with below-average rainfall
- North Central: Cold and wet
- Great Lakes and surrounding areas: Cold and rainy
- Northeast: Cool and wet
- South Central: Warm and wet
- Southeast: Warm and stormy
The Southwest should be relatively dry early in the season, while the Northeast gets some extended stretches of fair September weather. However, those patterns are not expected to last.
By Thanksgiving, a notably wetter pattern should develop across most regions, with storm systems becoming more frequent and widespread.
As for snow, the first opportunities arrive in the colder northern regions. Some higher elevations in the North Central and Great Lakes areas could see snow by mid-October, with increasingly winter-like weather as the season advances.
So whether you’re planning a fall foliage trip, getting ready for Halloween, or traveling for Thanksgiving, Fall 2026 promises plenty of changes. Warm September days will gradually give way to a much cooler and wetter finish to the season.
Join the Discussion
Are you looking forward to fall weather 2025?
What is one of your favorite fall activities?
What are you going to be for Halloween this year?
What is one recipe that you like to make for Thanksgiving?
These forecasts are always incorrect. TWC is predicting a mild winter in the upper Midwest as of 10/16/25. It’s supposed to be in the mid 60’s the weekend of 10/25-10/26 up here. Farmers Almanac is a gimmick.
Why is Alaska left out if predictions
I don’t see the forecasts for the different zones.
Hi KathyAnn, As a Member, you have access to forecasts for each zone here: https://www.farmersalmanac.com/long-range-weather-forecast. Please let us know if you have any other questions! 🧡
These forecasts barely mention the Pacific Northwest. They are always more focused on all of the other areas. We would like to know our specific information as well!
Hi Deb, If you would like more specific information for your area, please consider becoming a member: https://www.farmersalmanac.com/online-memberships
That’s simple! RAIN as usual. I was up in Seattle during a drought. Both days of it!:)
I am planning a party for October 25th in Long Island NY. What is the weather temperatures predicted?
We are planning an outdoor wedding November 22 wedding, what does weather look like for southern Indiana 😊
Hi Chris! Great news 🙂 Our Members have access to extended weather forecasts for the next 12 months. Subscribe here for as low as $9.99/year: https://www.farmersalmanac.com/online-memberships
It would be nice if you could just answer the question. Maybe she isn’t concerned with the whole time, just that day.
Hi there, While we would love to accommodate each of our reader’s requests, long range weather forecast access is reserved for Members like you, KathyAnn. 🙏
My birthday is mid November and I never know what I will get for weather. Any idea what the week before Thanksgiving looks like this year in the northeast New Jersey in particular thank you.
What does fair start to fall mean?
Mild and sunny
What is “unsettled”weather?
stormy one day, nice the next.
Why isn’t Alaska included in the weather forecast?? Canada is, I want a refund because I understood Alaska was included.