Farmers’ Almanac 2026–2027 Winter Weather Forecast

Farmers’ Almanac 2026–2027 winter forecast calls for a season of snow, sleet, and surprises. When will it snow? Here is your extended winter storm weather forecast with 2026–2027 weather predictions. See detailed long range forecast for your region in 3-day blocks (members-only).

Snow, Sleet, and Surprises

Bundle up and brace yourself. According to the Farmers’ Almanac, Winter 2026–2027 is shaping up to be a season of contrasts, driven by a developing El Niño pattern that peaks from January through March 2027. That warming pattern shifts the polar jet stream southward, loading the southern third of the country with moisture while shortening but not eliminating cold shots across the North.

The season officially begins with the winter solstice on December 21, 2026, but the cold and snow might make an appearance as early as September in some areas of the country. See our Fall 2026 Weather Forecast. A cold snap may keep the December holidays in a winter chill. See 20 early signs of a harsh winter coming.

Regional Outlook

Strong El Niño years follow a recognizable pattern in the United States. The active storm track sets up along the southern tier, funneling Pacific moisture across the Gulf states and up the East Coast. The northern half of the country does not escape winter (cold air still breaks southward in clippers and Arctic shots), but those events tend to be sharper and shorter rather than the week-long deep freezes that define La Niña winters.

For 2026–2027, the South and Southeast carry the highest precipitation risk of any region: expect above-normal rainfall and the threat of wintry mix and ice when cold air cuts in from the north. The Southwest stands to benefit most, with California and Arizona likely to see meaningful drought relief. Across the North, from the Great Lakes through the Plains and into New England, expect a variable season: cold enough to produce snow and lake-effect bursts, but with fewer prolonged Arctic stretches than recent La Niña winters delivered.

Zone-by-Zone Forecast

Zone 1: Northeast and New England

States: NY, VT, NH, ME, MA, CT, RI, PA, NJ, DE, MD, DC

The Northeast faces its most variable season in several years. El Niño’s moisture-loaded storm track collides repeatedly with cold air funneling down from Canada, and the result is exactly the kind of storm-by-storm uncertainty that makes forecasting the Northeast notoriously difficult. The dividing line between a foot of snow and a coating of ice will shift by as little as thirty miles from one event to the next. Coastal cities (New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Baltimore) will tilt toward rain or wet snow in many events, while the interior and higher elevations of Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine accumulate real snow totals. January and February are the months to watch: those are when the El Niño storm track is at full strength and when individual storms will carry the most moisture. Expect a season with several significant winter storms, but no single dominant cold pattern.

Zone 2: Great Lakes and Midwest

States: OH, MI, IN, KY, IL, WI

The Great Lakes snowbelt, running from the eastern shore of Lake Michigan through the south shore of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, will produce its characteristic lake-effect bursts whenever cold air tracks across open water. Cleveland, Buffalo (just over the Zone 1 border), Erie, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan are the primary lake-effect targets. Chicago and Indianapolis will see fast-moving clipper systems delivering brief accumulating snows rather than extended storms. Overall temperatures run near-normal to slightly below, with cold snaps sharp enough to produce dangerous wind chills in January. The El Niño moderating effect is real here but limited: Lake Michigan and Lake Erie remain fully unfrozen for most of the season, keeping the moisture supply for lake-effect events healthy through February.

Zone 3: Southeast

States: TN, VA, WV, NC, SC, GA, AL, MS, FL

The Southeast sits in the most active quadrant of the El Niño storm track. Above-normal precipitation is the headline story: expect a wetter-than-average winter across the region, with frequent rainfall events from November through March. Snow is not the primary threat for most of the Southeast, but the northern tier (Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee, and the western Carolinas) will see ice and mixed-precipitation events when cold air drops in behind frontal systems. Atlanta residents should monitor late-January and early-February closely: those months historically carry the highest ice risk in El Niño years for the Deep South. Florida stays mild, though northern Florida may see unusual cold snaps during Arctic intrusions.

Zone 4: North Central

States: MO, IA, MN, ND, SD, NE, KS, CO, WY, MT

The North Central region tells the most nuanced story of the winter. El Niño moderates conditions across the southern half of this zone: Kansas City, Omaha, and Denver should see near-normal temperatures with fewer extreme cold outbreaks. But Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana remain vulnerable to periodic blasts of Arctic air, particularly in December and February when the polar vortex is most active. The Colorado Rockies and Wyoming’s mountain ranges will see near-normal snowpack, with individual storm cycles producing heavy mountain snow. Plains snowfall will be variable: clipper systems bring light, blowing snow to the Dakotas and Nebraska, while larger storm systems occasionally drop significant accumulations from Kansas City north to Minneapolis.

Zone 5: South Central

States: AR, LA, OK, TX, NM

Zone 5 sits directly in the El Niño corridor and will feel it. Above-normal precipitation is nearly certain, and the form that precipitation takes (rain, sleet, or freezing rain) depends on how far south Arctic cold can push each time a front moves through. Oklahoma and northern Texas carry the highest ice risk in the contiguous United States this winter: the combination of surplus moisture from El Niño and periodic Arctic outbreaks is the exact recipe for ice storms. Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa carry the highest ice storm risk in the contiguous United States under this pattern and should monitor the forecast closely during cold intrusions. Louisiana, Arkansas, and southern Texas will see heavy rainfall and the possibility of flooding during the wettest systems. New Mexico’s southern desert sees above-normal precipitation; the northern mountains see near-normal to above-normal snowpack.

Zone 6: Northwest

States: WA, OR, ID

The Northwest trades its cold, dry winters for something wetter but milder. El Niño typically raises temperatures in the Pacific Northwest while increasing precipitation at lower elevations, a combination that translates to rain rather than snow in the valleys, and below-normal snowpack in the Cascades. Seattle and Portland will see above-normal rainfall and mild temperatures through January and February. The Cascades, which provide critical spring and summer water supply for the region, run below-normal snowpack for the second straight year. Interior mountains in Idaho and eastern Oregon and Washington fare somewhat better, with near-normal accumulation at higher elevations. Skiers planning Cascade resort trips should plan for variable conditions, with the best snowfall likely in December and again in March.

Zone 7: Southwest

States: CA, NV, UT, AZ

The Southwest is the clearest winner of an El Niño winter, and 2026–2027 should reinforce that pattern. Southern California and Arizona have been in varying stages of drought for several years; the active Pacific storm track this winter delivers above-normal precipitation across both states, with drought-relief totals possible in the hardest-hit areas. Los Angeles, San Diego, and Phoenix should expect a wet winter by their standards, with multiple significant rain events between December and March. Sierra Nevada snowpack, which determines California’s water supply, is the big uncertainty this winter. Snow risk stays low at lower elevations, and how much snow builds in the Sierra and Utah’s Wasatch Range will depend on how cold each Pacific storm runs. Nevada’s lower deserts stay mild and increasingly wet.

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Frequently Asked Questions

When does winter 2026–2027 officially start?

Winter 2026–2027 officially begins with the winter solstice on December 21, 2026, the shortest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere. However, meteorological winter (the three coldest calendar months) starts December 1. Cold weather and early snowfall can arrive well before the official start date, particularly in the northern states. The Farmers’ Almanac tracks the full season from late November through March 20, 2027.

Which states will get the most snow in winter 2026–2027?

Under the El Niño pattern forecast for 2026–2027, the highest snowfall totals are expected in the Great Lakes snowbelt (Zone 2: northern Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin), the interior Northeast (Zone 1: Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and upstate New York), and the northern Plains (Zone 4: Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota). The southern and coastal areas will lean more toward rain and mixed precipitation rather than heavy snow. The Southwest (Zone 7) sees above-normal precipitation in southern California and Arizona, mostly as rain at lower elevations, while Sierra Nevada snowpack remains uncertain.

What does El Niño mean for winter 2026–2027?

El Niño is a warming of sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. For the United States, a moderate-to-strong El Niño typically shifts the polar jet stream southward, loading the southern tier of the country with extra moisture and storm activity while moderating (but not eliminating) cold across the North. The current El Niño is strengthening heading into the winter. Expect above-normal precipitation across the South, drought relief in the Southwest, and shorter-but-still-sharp cold snaps across the Great Lakes and North Central states.

Will winter 2026–2027 be cold?

Yes, though the character of the cold depends heavily on your region. The northern states, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast will see cold snaps and below-freezing temperatures throughout December through February. El Niño’s moderating effect means those cold periods are likely to be shorter and less extreme than the prolonged Arctic sieges seen during recent La Niña winters. The South will see near-normal to slightly below temperatures with significant rain and some ice risk. The Southwest runs mild overall. No part of the continental U.S. escapes winter entirely.

Which areas face the worst ice storm risk this winter?

The highest ice storm risk for winter 2026–2027 falls across the South Central states, particularly Oklahoma, northern Texas, Arkansas, and the Missouri Ozarks (Zone 5). These areas sit at the junction of El Niño’s enhanced moisture flow and periodic Arctic cold intrusions, the exact combination that produces freezing rain and sleet. The Kingston–Ottawa corridor in Canada and the Virginia–Maryland–Pennsylvania Appalachian region also carry elevated ice risk. Coastal New England faces a rain-versus-snow line that can produce ice depending on storm track.

How does the Farmers’ Almanac predict the weather so far in advance?

The Farmers’ Almanac has used a proprietary long-range forecasting formula since 1818, developed by its founding editor based on correlations between celestial cycles, solar activity (including sunspot cycles), lunar motion, and observed meteorological patterns. The formula has been refined over 200 years but remains rooted in its original methodology. Forecasts are calculated and set into print months before publication, a commitment that has distinguished the Farmers’ Almanac from short-range forecasting services for over two centuries.

What month will be the snowiest in 2026–2027?

January and February 2027 are expected to be the most active months for winter precipitation across most of the country. El Niño peaks in intensity during this period, driving the most moisture-laden storm systems along the southern tier and producing the largest nor’easters along the East Coast. In the Great Lakes snowbelt, January typically marks the peak of lake-effect season. For the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, February historically delivers the deepest cold and heaviest snowfall. December 2026 serves as a ramp-up month, with cold arriving progressively and the first significant snowstorms setting up by mid-to-late month.

About Farmers’ Almanac Forecasts

For over 200 years, the Farmers’ Almanac has been predicting long range weather forecasts to help you plan ahead.

These forecasts are created using a tried-and-true formula that adapts to the mysteries of nature and the ever-changing world in which we live. The basis of our prediction method was developed by our founding editor according to correlations between celestial events, and various meteorological conditions.

Today this formula uses the original rules set forth back in 1818, but also accounts for fluctuations in the environment on Earth, as well as solar activity (sunspots), the motion of the Moon, and other proprietary factors.

Yes, nature throws us a curveball from time to time, but it doesn’t stop us from going out on a limb to not only predict weather patterns up to a year in advance, but to also put it in print.

Our winter weather forecast for Canada