What is El Niño? When Is The Next One?

Every few years, weather forecasters start talking about something called El Niño, a phenomenon that affects weather on a global scale, but isn’t particularly well understood. What we do know about El Niño weather is that it is characterized by unusually high water temperatures off the Pacific coast of South America. El Niño conditions generally occur rather erratically, about once every three to seven years, and typically last between 12 and 18 months.

What is El Niño?

In Spanish, el niño means “the little boy.” When capitalized—as it always is when talking about the weather phenomenon—it is the Spanish diminutive used to denote the Christ Child. El Niño was originally named in the 19th century, when Peruvian sailors noticed that every few years, around Christmastime, coastal waters warmed, and the Pacific Ocean current shifted southward.

How does it affect the weather?

During a non El Niño weather year, westward blowing trade winds cause warm surface waters to accumulate in the Western Equatorial Pacific, bringing heavy rainfall to surrounding areas. The rainfall releases heat, which keeps the Western Pacific’s atmosphere warm, and helps steer the jet stream’s flow from Northern Asia toward Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. But during an El Niño year, trade winds slacken, or even reverse.

Warm surface waters and the accompanying clouds move eastward, taking expected rain from some regions and dropping it on others. The jet stream flows much farther to the south, steering Pacific winter storms across central California and the southern U.S. That means that during El Niño years, typically cold areas such as New England, the upper Midwest, and much of Canada, see a warmer, drier-than-normal winter, while Southern states experience colder, wetter conditions than normal.

What causes it?

Scientists are still trying to determine what causes EI Niño. The abnormally warm ocean associated with an El Niño event interacts with the overlying atmosphere, disrupting atmospheric circulation directly overhead, and for thousands of miles. Blamed in the past for wildfires, famines, floods, droughts, and thousands of human fatalities, El Niño may be the single most disruptive climatic influence on the planet. The 1982-83 El Niño, for example, was responsible for at least $13 billion in damages.

How long can El Niño last?

The longest recorded El Niño lasted from 1991 to 1995, a period marked by numerous weather disasters worldwide. Evidence suggests such long lasting El Niño should only occur once every several thousand years.

Sometimes after a period of very warm water temperatures in the Pacific, a period of unusually chilly water temperatures, often referred to as La Niña occurs in its aftermath. The two temperature conditions oscillate back and forth, and the result is called the “Southern Oscillation.” This is why scientists use the term El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, to describe the entire phenomenon.

When did El Niño occur in the past?

Since 1950, El Niño events have been observed in 1952, 1958, 1964, 1966, 1969, 1972, 1976, 1982, 1987, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002-2003, 2004-2005, 2006-2007, 2009-2010, 2014-2016, and 2018–19. NOAA declared a new El Niño in June 2023.

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