Farmers’ Almanac Summer Weather Forecast: How It Works and What to Watch
Quick Reference: Farmers’ Almanac Summer Forecast
- Issued: annually each March for the coming summer.
- Forecast period: June through August (meteorological summer).
- Method: 200-year-old formula combining sunspot cycles, lunar position, tidal pull, and historical patterns.
- Published accuracy: 80-85% by the Almanac’s own self-tracking.
- Format: 7-zone US map plus 5-zone Canadian map, by month and region.
- 2026 summer outlook: see the latest long-range forecast page.
The Farmers’ Almanac summer weather forecast comes out each spring and predicts conditions for June through August across the United States and Canada. It is built using a math-based formula that has been refined and used in continuous publication since 1818. Here is what goes into the formula, how to read the regional outlook for your zone, and what the 2026 summer signals look like.
How the Formula Works
The Almanac’s long-range formula is not publicly published, but the editors describe four main inputs:
- Sunspot cycles: the 11-year solar activity cycle correlates loosely with northern hemisphere temperature patterns.
- Lunar position: the moon’s gravitational influence on tides also tugs slightly on the atmosphere.
- Tidal pull: long-period tidal patterns track multi-year weather oscillations.
- Historical patterns: the Almanac maintains a 200-year database of regional weather, and the formula weights similar historical years.
How to Read the Regional Forecast
The summer forecast is published as a 7-zone US map and a 5-zone Canadian map. Each zone gets a month-by-month outlook describing expected average temperatures (relative to the climate normal), precipitation pattern, and any notable weather events (heat waves, drought, tropical activity for coastal zones).
Self-Reported Accuracy
The Almanac tracks its own forecast against the actual season and reports 80 to 85 percent accuracy on its regional outlooks, judged year by year against NOAA temperature and precipitation normals. Independent reviews place the actual accuracy somewhat lower, but still above pure chance.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the summer forecast published?
Each March, for the coming June-July-August summer. The print Almanac comes out in late August with the winter forecast and other long-range guidance for the next 12 months.
How accurate is it?
The Almanac reports 80-85 percent accuracy by its own measure. Independent reviews put it closer to 60-65 percent, which is still meaningfully above chance for a seasonal outlook.
How is this different from NOAA’s seasonal outlook?
NOAA publishes a 1-month and 3-month outlook each month based on real-time atmospheric and oceanographic data. The Almanac publishes a full-summer outlook based on a fixed formula. The two complement each other.
Can I see the summer forecast online?
Yes. The latest forecast is on the Almanac’s long-range weather forecast page, free to read.
This article was published by the Staff at FarmersAlmanac.com. Any questions? Contact us at questions@farmersalmananac.com.
- Farmers' Almanac Staff
- Farmers' Almanac Staff
- Farmers' Almanac Staff
- Farmers' Almanac Staff
